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1、摘要理论预测GM(1,N)模型进行实证分析,解决了各个生产要素比较优势演化评价指标分行业数据获取方面的困难。关键词:比较优势演化,制造业升级,GM(1,N)模型,出口复杂度,中等收入阶段II万方数据AbstractAbstractSinceenteringthemiddle-incomestage,withthedevelopmentofeconomyandtheimprovementofpeople'slivingstandard,thecomparativeadvantagesofthetraditionalfact
2、orsofproductionweakenedgraduallyinourcountry.Foralongtime,manufacturingindustryasanengineofeconomicgrowth,itiscloselyrelatedtoeconomicdevelopment.Therefore,grasptheobjectivelawofcomparativeadvantageevolution,explorethepathofmanufacturingindustrytoupgrade,Itisofgr
3、eatsignificanceforourcountrytocrossinghigh-incomestage.Theaimofthispaperistoexplorethecomparativeadvantageevolutiontotheinfluenceofthemanufacturingindustryupgrade,tograsptheobjectivelawofcomparativeadvantageevolutioninourcountry,providepolicyrecommendationsaboutt
4、orealizethepromotionofthepositionofmanufacturingindustryintheglobalvaluechain.Therefore,onthebasisofliteraturereview,thispaperfirstlyconstructtheevaluationindexsystemoftheevolutionofcomparativeadvantage,thequantitativeanalysisoftheourcountryenteringthemiddle-inco
5、mestagethedynamicevolutionofcomparativeadvantage;Second,withexportcomplexitymeasureofmanufacturinginChinasinceenteringthemiddle-incomestagepositionintheglobalvaluechain,andfromthethreeperspectivesofmanufacturingindustryinourcountrymakesastatisticanalysisontheupgr
6、adeprocess;Finally,27kindsofmanufacturingindustrycanbedividedintothreecategories,laborintensive,capitalintensive,technologyintensiveandbuildgreypredictionGM(1,N)modelempiricalanalysistheinfluenceonthecomparativeadvantageevolutiontomanufacturingupgradeprocess,onth
7、isbasistofurtherclarifythecomparativeadvantagedynamicevolutioninChinasinceenteringthemiddle-incomestageandthehistoryofthemanufacturingindustryupgradeprocess,aswellastheinfluencemechanismofcomparativeadvantageevolutiontomanufacturingindustrytoupgrade,.Theresultssh
8、owthat:(1)Theoveralldevelopmenttrendofcomparativeadvantageisgraduallyimproved.However,sofartheprimaryfactorsofproductionhasacomparativeadvantage,butitscomparat