人民币汇率波动对我国通信设备行业贸易收支影响的分析

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1、摘要ABSTRACTThisartlele15basedontheoreticatanalysis，emPiricalanalysisasameansofexehangeinthereviewoftheoryandonthebasisofPastexPerience，firstintroducedthetheoryofequ1Libriumexehangeratechanges，includingthematur让yoftheequitibrlumexchangeratetheory:thebasicelementsofthedevetoPedc

2、ountrlesbasedonequitibriumexchangerateanatysis，thenaturalequitibriumexehangeratemethod，thebehaviorLawandequi【ibriumexehangerateequilibriumeXchangeratebasedontheEdwardsanatysisofdevetoPjngeountrles，throughtheEtbadawianalysisofdevetoPingcountries，equitibriumexchangerateanaLysls

3、toeomParethemonebyone.ChinaasthesPeeificresearchquestion，weneedtoeombinetheaboveadvantagesanddisadvantagesofeachmodel，carefuttyseteetmodels.AndthenintroducesthefLexibitityofthebalanceofPaymentsanaLysis，usingtheexchangerateeLasticityoftradebatanee，J一Curveanatysistoittustrateth

4、elimitationsofelasticityanatysis;CurrencydevaLuationcanimProvethetradebalance.InthetongrunitdePendsontheinternationattrade，exPortandimPorte!astieityofdemand，whenacountry’5imPortandexPortetastlcityofdemandtomeettheMarshall一LernerCondltion>1，thedevatuationeanimProvetheinternati

5、onalbalanceofPayments;AtthesametimeitintrodueedanotherbatanceofPaymentsabsorPtionanalysis，andanaLysisoftheabsorPtloneffectonthetradebalanCeand让S【im让ations.FromthePointofmaerovie以anemPlrieatanalysisusingPaneldatamodetbasedonChlna’5tetecommunieationsequiPmentindust以thetradeba【a

6、neeandexehangerateftuetuationsbetweenthemodetresuttsshowthat:inthetongtermChinahasbeencateulatedwith一0.2366一0.1570二一0.3936<1，therefore，whichjtdoesnotmeetthelongregressionanatysis，theMarshatl一LernerCondition.Inotherwords，theexchangerateaPPreciation，Intheshortterm，toimProvethee

7、ommunieationequiPmentmanufacturingindustryinChlnatradebaLanee，tradefaeititationanduPgradetheindustriatstructureandProductinnovation，WhitedrivingourtradebataneesurPtus，imProvetheRMB’5Posjtionininternationattradeandtherighttotalk，buttheexehangerateofeconomiedeveLoPmentintheLong

8、term15stlttnegative.FromthePointofmicroview，detaitedanatysisthroughe