基于bp神经网络中国医药行业上市公司财务危机预警分析

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1、AbstractWiththerapiddevelopmentofcommodityeconomy,marketcompetitionIisncreasinglyfierce．Enterpriseisalwaysfacingthethreatbeeliminated．Thefinancialcrisisaffectingsurvival，profit，andthedevelopmentisthemostdirectandmostimportantfactor．Inordertosurvive，profit，developmentandtoavoidbeingeliminat

2、edbythemarket，companiesmustcontinuetostrengthenitsownmanagement，removeriskfactoraffectingthecompany。Ssurvivalanddevelopment，SOastostandfirminthemarketforalongtime．Inrecentyears，China'spharmaceuticalindustryisdevelopingrapidly．Pharmaceuticalmarketsizeisincreasingatarapidgrowthrateof14％-17％．

3、TheChinesepharmaceuticalmarketisexpectedtobecomethepharmaceuticalmarketaftertheUnitedStates．However,thepharmaceuticalindustryisaweakcycleindustry,along、Ⅳimthetypicalcharacteristicsofthe”threehigh”-Highinvestment,Higll-risk，Highreturns．After2012，China’Soveralleconomicslowdown，theupwardtrend

4、ofthecostofdrugshasbecomemoreobvious．Atpresent,ChinahasenteredthepharmaceuticalindustrystructuraladjustmentinthecrucialperiodoftransformationandupgradingofthecountrydoctortochangeitintothemedicineseparatefromtheShamShuiPoDistrict．Faced州tllincreasinglyfiercemarketcompetitionandsqueezingofth

5、enationalpolicy,somesmallerandlackofmanagementabilityofthepharmaceuticalfactoriesandcommercialpharmaceuticalcompanieswillbeeliminated，theentirepharmaceuticalindustrywillfacere-shuffle．Therefore，thelistedcompaniesofChina'spharmaceuticalindustryfinancialcrisisearlywarningisforcedineyebrow．Th

6、isarticleestablishingBPneuralnetworkofFinancialcrisiswarningmodelisforListedCompaniesofChina’Spharmaceuticalindustry．Iselect2008-2010listedontheShanghaiandShenzhenstockpharmaceuticalcompaniesasresearchobjects．Ireadalotofdomesticandintemationalfinancialcrisisearlywarningresearchliterature，a

7、ndorganizetheliterature．Iselectedthe45indicators(includingfinancialandnonfinancialindicators)onthebasisofpreviousresearch，anddividethelisted!IIcompany。Sfinancialpositionintothreepolicedegree：healthy,mildcrisis，severecrisis．Thisarticlebuildsshort-termBPneuralne