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1、哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文AbstractFinancialcrisiswarningmodel’sestablishmentisonanidealhypothesisthattrainingsetisabsolutelyright,whichmeansthatthereisfinancialcrisisinfinancialcrisisenterprisesandthereisnopotentialfinancialcrisisinfinancialhealthenterprises.Butwhenweestablis
2、hfinancialcrisiswarningmodel,howcouldweguaranteethecorrectnessoftrainingset’scategoryifweuseBPneuralnetworksmethodduringtrainingandsimulation.Itisfatalsignificanceforfinancialcrisiswarningmodelbasedonthetrainingsetsampleifthereiswrongaboutthetrainingsetcategory,beca
3、usethiscategorymistakeaffectstheaccuracyoffinancialcrisiswarningmodel,whichiscrucialforthefinancialcrisiswarningmodel’ssuccessorfailure.Basedonformerscholar’sresearchonfinancialcrisiswarningindexsystem,thepaperretainsindexesextractedfromthebalancesheet,incomestateme
4、ntandstatementofcashflows,suchas,solvency,profitability,operatingcapacity,abilitytogrow,abilitytoexpandandindexaboutcashflowsandcombinesindexaboutcooperategovernanceandauditopinion.Thepaperabandonsthesefuzzyindexeslikestrategicmanagement,staffrelationshipandlifecycl
5、eandindexwhichcanbecalculatedfromexistingindexlikeEVA.Meanwhile,thepaperputsforwardlandreserveindextohighlightfinancialmanagementcharacteristicsofrealestatecompaniesandpolicyrestrictionsindextohighlightChina’srealestatemarketpolicybasedonpolicyonfinance,taxanddealre
6、gistration.Whenthepaperdesignsfinancialcrisiswarningprocess,BPneuralnetworkscategorymethodisusedtoreflecttheideaofcost-sensitivelearning.Afterthat,thepaperestablishesfinancialcrisiswarningmodelbasedoncost-sensitivelearningandBPneuralnetworks.Thespecificprogressofthe
7、modelisasfollows:firstly,thepaperstandardizes41indexesof9aspects.Secondly,thesamplesaredividedintotrainingsetandsampletested.Thirdly,thepaperabandonsthewrongsamplestoreflectthecost-sensitivelearningideaaftersimulationandputtherestofsampletestedbacktothetrainingset.F
8、ourthly,thepaperdoestheformerworkagainuntil5resultsarecompletelyright.Thisisfinancialcrisiswarningmodelbasedoncost-sensitivelearningthepap