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1、InternationalJournalofUncertainty,FuzzinessandKnowledge-BasedSystemsVol.8,No.3(2000)295-309©WorldScientificPublishingCompanyAPPLICATIONSOFPOSSIBILITYANDEVIDENCETHEORYINCIVILENGINEERINGTHOMASFETZ,MICHAELOBERGUGGENBERGER,andSIMONPITTSCHMANNInstitutfurTechnischeMathematik,Geome
2、trieundBauinformatikUniversitdtInnsbruck,Technikerstrafie13A-6020Innsbruck,AustriaReceived2November1999Revised29March2000Thisarticleisdevotedtoapplicationsoffuzzysettheory,possibilitytheoryandevidencetheoryincivilengineering,presentingcurrentworkofagroupofresearchersattheUni
3、versityofInnsbruck.Wearguethatthesemethodsarewellsuitedforanalyzingandprocessingtheparameteruncertaintiesarisinginsoilmechanicsandconstructionmanagement.Weaddresstwospecificapplicationshere:finiteelementcomputationsinfoundationengineeringandaqueueingmodelinearthwork.Keywords
4、:Engineeringapplications,finiteelementmethods,queueingmodels,impreciseparameters,possibilityandevidencetheory,fuzzyprobabilities.1.IntroductionThereisincreasingawarenessintheengineeringcommunity1,2'3thatprobabilitytheoryalonedoesnotsufficeformodellingtheuncertaintiesarisingi
5、nengineeringproblems.Indeed,thedatacommonlyavailable,sayinsoilmechanicsorconstruc•tionmanagement,areoftenscarce,vague,ambiguousorinanycaseinneedofinterpretation.Thusmoreflexibletoolsforassessingandprocessingsubjectiveknowledgeandexpertestimatesareneeded.Usingriskanalysis,iti
6、susuallyeasyfortheplanningengineertoprovidefocalsetsforthefluctuationsoftheparametersinvolvedatvariousrisklevels.Thisopensthedoorforemployingfuzzysets,possibilitytheoryorevidencetheory.Whenthesetypesofmethodsareeffectedfordescribingtheinputdata,itisessentialthatarithmeticalp
7、rocessingispossibleintheengineeringmodels(infiniteelements,say)andresultsinoutputdataofthesametype.Infuzzysettheory,thisisguaranteedbytheextensionprinciple(reducingthecomputationstoevaluatingthesolutionoperatorsonthelevelsets),whileinDempster-Shaferevidencetheory,thecomputat
8、ionscanbedonedirectlywiththefocalsets.Thepurposeofthispaperistodemonstratet
