亚太地区-宏观策略-转型中的亚洲

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1、November2018ResearchInstituteAsiainTransitionThoughtleadershipfromCreditSuisseResearchandtheworld’sforemostexpertsIntroductionTheEmergingAsianeconomicandinvestmentopportunityisundergoingaperiodofmultifaceted,swiftandexcitingtransition.Theregion’sshareofglobaleconomicoutputissettoreach55%by

2、2050anditsequityandcorporatebondmarketsareoncoursetoassumeclosetoa30%globalshareby2030.Yetthemeansbywhichthisactivityisgeneratedisbeingtransformed,primarilymotivatedbyanintensifyingfocusonsustainability.Upper-middle-incomeAsianeconomiesareevolvingfrommanufacturingexport-ledgrowthmodelstowa

3、rdgreateroutputfromservicesectors,whilelargepoolsofdomesticsavingswillprogres-sivelyfundconsumptionastheengineofgrowth,thusrebalancingfromdebt-fueledinvestment.Asia'sexportmixisbecomingprogressivelymorevalue-addedwithariseindomesticinputs,whiledirectionally,tradeisincreasingintra-regionall

4、y.The"MadeinChina2025"initiativeembodiesthisevolution.However,risinglaborcostsarelikelytoencouragearedistributionofChina'sdominantexportshareamonglower-incomeregionaleconomieswiththrivingmanufacturingsectors.Thismaybecompoundedbysupply-chaindiversificationnecessitatedbyongoingUS-Chinatrade

5、frictions.MaturingAsianeconomiesarelosingtheirdemographicdividends,whileotherless-developedneighborswillcontinuetoreapthebenefitsforthenextdecade(s).However,theriseinwealthcreationamongAsianhouseholdsisthefastestofanyglobalregion,with93millionpeoplejoiningthemiddleclassinthelastsevenyearsa

6、lone.Thishasfar-reachingimplicationsforspendingandinvestmenttrendsasdiscre-tionaryincomecontinuestogrow.Geopolitically,Asiaiswitnessingashiftinbalanceasregionalhegemoniesprojectingbothsoftandhardformsofpowercompeteforinfluencewithconflictingagendas.China’ssignature"BeltandRoadInitiative"is

7、anaturalconsequenceofrisingconfidenceinitsuniqueeconomicandpoliticalmodelandawillingnesstoexportit.Smallernationsdrawnintothisstrugglemustthereforetrytoprotecttheirinterestswiththemostfavorableeconomicandsecurityalliances.Administrativereformprogramsaddressin