全球汽车与汽车零部件：全球汽车会议要点

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1、COREGlobalAutos&AutoPartsNavigatingTurbulentWaters:GlobalAutosConferenceTakeawaysMarkedchangeincompanyandinvestortone.Inprioryears,theextendedplateauinU.S.lightvehiclesalescombinedwithsteadygrowthinChinaandEuropemeantinvestorshadtheluxuryoffocusingonlonger-termpositioni

2、ngofcompaniesinafutureof#disruptivemobility.MuchofthefocusthisyearwasaroundhowcompaniesINDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.Autos&AutoPartsNEUTRALUnchangedU.S.Autos&AutoPartsBrianA.Johnson+12125265627EquityResearch16November2018arenavigating2H’18andtheirinitialplansfor2019inlightofchopp

3、ymacroconditions(ultimatelyreinforcingtheperceptionthatautosare“latecycle”).Inflationarypressuresmounting:Mostsuppliersreportedsomeinflationarypressuresaroundlaborrates,tariffs,freight,andcommodities.Thatsaid,mostweregenerallyoptimisticintheirabilitytooffsetthroughincre

4、asedproductivity.Mixedmarketoutlook:CompaniesseemtobecautiouslyplanningforaflatChinamarket(atbest)withsomesuppliersbracedfordown2-3%.MostsuppliersfeelcomfortableEuropeanproductionissuesaretemporaryduetoWLTP.ExpectationsfortheU.S.arerelativelystableandreceivedmuchlessatt

5、entionrelativetoyearspast.Micro-mobilitygainingtraction,electrificationdebatecontinues:KeynotespeakerHoraceDediumadeastrongcaseforthegrowthofmicro-mobilitysolutionssuchasbicyclesandscootersforshorttrips,whichcouldaccountfornearlyhalfofthevehiclemilestravelledandthemajor

6、ityoftrips.ThedebatecontinuesonelectricwithTeslaconfidentofabatterycosttippingpointby2020vssomesuppliersmoreskeptical.Operatingperformancemixedbysupplier:Thevariabilityofsupplieroperatingperformanceinthesechallengingconditionswasmarked.AmericanAxlesoundedconfidentinitsa

7、bilitytoovercomeitsissues.BycontrastMagna,BorgWarner,andGarrettreportedrelativelymodestpressures.Nocalmaheadfromthepoliticalstorms:Moreheadline-drivenvolatilityanduncertaintyliesaheadasTrumpusestariffthreatsagainstEuropeandChina,andasbattlelinesaredrawnwithCaliforniaove

8、rZEVmandates.Outlookforusedcarpricingtrendsrelativelystable,albeitskewedtothedownside:Thestrongeconomicenviron