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1、ABGlobalResearch13November2018EquityStrategyAmericasKeithParkerStrategistkeith-j.parker@ubs.com+1-212-7133296NealBurkAssociateStrategistneal.burk@ubs.com+1-212-7134066USEquityStrategyDe-ratinganddeceleration:howtoinvestfor2019?Afterbigde-ratings:16%avgS&Preturns,~40%reversalofse
2、ctor/IGreturnsTheS&P500P/Ehasdeclinedbyover2xin2018asincreasedrisksaroundhigherrates,tariffsandslowinggrowthhavebeenpriced.InyearsfollowingaP/Edeclineof>1x,S&P500returnshaveaveraged16%astheP/Ehasrecouped~30%ofthedecline.Wehavealsofoundthat~40%ofsectorandindustrygroup(IG)relative
3、returnshavereversedintheyearafterde-rating.Therefore,weselectivelypositionforapotentialcatch-uptrade.TheselloffinOctoberwasmuchbiggerthanthe5%+typepullbackwethoughtwaslikely(link),butwestillseeequitieshighertoyearend.Wetarget3200fortheS&Pfor2019yearendon7%EPSgrowthandariseintheP
4、/E,inlinewithhistoryafterde-ratings.Nofurthertradeescalation,solidbutslowinggrowthandmoderatelyhigherratesunderpinourview.Fordeceleration:ISMcycleisaguidepostformarketpeak,leadership,rotationsWeanalyzemarket,sector,IGandstylereturnssince1955and1984for4phasesoftheISMmfgcycleusing
5、52.5asthetransitionpoint:1)lowISMbelow52.5butrising,2)high/rising,3)high/falling(currentphase),and4)low/falling.S&PreturnsatthisstagehavebeensizeablewithatypicalpeakaftertheISMfallsbelow50.Theavg14mlengthofthisphasewouldpointtoamarketpeakafterOct-19,usingAug-18astheISMpeak.Healt
6、hcare,TechandUtilitieshaveoutperformedonavgwhentheISMwashigh/falling,withMaterials,AutosandSemistheworstperformers.Atastyle/factorlevel,momentum,quality,andgrowthshouldleadatthisstage,buttheyarenotcheap.LargecapsoutperformandvaluetendstolagbutFCFdoeswell.ISM<52.5nextyearwouldbea
7、signaltorotatemoredefensivelyandalsointoearlycyclevalue.Howisthiscycledifferent?FundamentaldriversofgrowthcanpersistOutsideoftheobviousfactthatthisbullmarketandeconomicexpansionareover9yrsold,thereareotherdifferencesbetweenthiscycleandpastones:1)protectionismisafactor;2)leverage
8、hasshifted,watchsmallcorps;3)consumersavingsrat
