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1、TheFutureofWindNARUCStaffSubcommitteeonAccountingandFinanceOctober13,2008Dr.LolaInfanteManager,GenerationFuelsandMarketAnalysisTheFutureofWindCurrenttrendsObservedDriversFuture(s)Future1:“Improved”BAU=100GWFuture2:Aggressivepolicy=200GWFuture3:Revoluti
2、onarychange=300+GWUncertaintiesTheFutureofWind–CurrentTrendsExceedingexpectationsRenewableEnergyNetGeneration-2007*Includeswind,solar,biomassandothernon-hydropowerrenewableenergysources.**Includesgenerationbybatteries,chemicals,pitch,andpurchasedsteam.
3、Source:U.S.DepartmentofEnergy,EnergyInformationAdministration,2007dataGrowthofrenewablegenerationSource:U.S.DepartmentofEnergy,EnergyInformationAdministrationGrowthofwindgenerationSource:U.S.DepartmentofEnergy,EnergyInformationAdministration2008data:Ja
4、n-June+1.1%/yr+31%/yrAnnualgrowthGrowthofWind-CapacitySource:Ventyx,Inc.TheVelocitySuite2008data:AsofSeptember.Allotheryears:asofDecemberGrowthofWind-CapacitySource:VentyxInc.,TheVelocitySuite2008data:AsofSeptember.Allotheryears:asofDecemberAnnualCapac
5、ityAdditionsAnnualgrowthWindcapacityinthestatesSource:VentyxInc.,TheVelocitySuiteWindinthestatesSource:VentyxInc.,TheVelocitySuite;U.S.DepartmentofEnergy,EnergyInformationAdministrationMainActors–MarketStructureSource:VentyxInc.,TheVelocitySuite;U.S.De
6、partmentofEnergy,EnergyInformationAdministrationTheFutureofWindObservedDriversPolicyStateRPSPTCEconomicenvironment(increasedcost-competitiveness)ChangingclimateWindPowerResourcesSource:NREL,WindEnergyResourceAtlasoftheUnitedStates28States&TheDistrictof
7、ColumbiaRenewableEnergyStandardsinthestates(28+DC)createa“regulatory”demandforrenewablesPTCThePTCandotherfinancialincentivesfacilitatethefinancingofnewcapacityandloweritscostBut…Drivers–EconomicFundamentalsIncreasedconstructioncostsHighandvolatilefuelc
8、ostsDifferentsources,2008Levelizedcost:Thepresentvalueofthetotalcostofbuildingandoperatingageneratingplantoveritseconomiclife,convertedtoequalannualpayments.LRMC:Priceofpoweratwhichadevelopercanrecoverthecost,notonlyofoperatinganewpower
