国家风险评估及

《国家风险评估及》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。

1、第十一讲国家风险评估及管理ChapterObjectivesToidentifythecommonfactorsusedbyMNCstomeasureacountry’spoliticalriskandfinancialrisk;Toexplainthetechniquesusedtomeasurecountryrisk;andToexplainhowMNCsusetheassessmentofcountryriskwhenmakingfinancialdecisions.WhyCountryR

2、iskAnalysisIsImportant１.DefinitionofPoliticalriskistheriskthatthebusinessenvironmentinahostcountrywillchangeunexpectedlyoristhepotentiallyadverseimpactofacountry’senvironmentonanMNC’scashflows(国家风险指东道国的商业环境发生非预期的变化，从而对跨国公司的价值产生影响。）2.SomeAdverseImpact

3、s:a.Aterroristattackb.Amajorlaborstrikeinanindustryc.Apoliticalcrisisduetoascandalwithinacountryd.Concernaboutacountry’sbankingsystemthatmaycauseamajoroutflowoffundse.Theimpositionoftraderestrictionsonimports３.Countryriskanalysiscanbeused:tomonitorco

4、untrieswheretheMNCiscurrentlydoingbusiness;asascreeningdevicetoavoidconductingbusinessincountrieswithexcessiverisk;andtoreviseitsinvestmentorfinancingdecisionsinlightofrecentevents.WhyCountryRiskAnalysisIsImportantthecompaniesthatassesscountryrisk.Po

5、liticalrisk（政治风险）istheriskthatasovereignhostgovernmentwillunexpectedlychangetherulesofthegameunderwhichbusinessesoperatePoliticalrisksarisebecauseofunexpectedchangesinthepoliticalenvironmentwithinahostcountryorintherelationshipofahostcountrytoanother

6、country.Financialrisk（财务风险）refersmoregenerallytounexpectedeventsinacountry’sfinancial,economic,orbusinesslifeFinancialriskisdeterminedbyahostoffinancialandeconomicfactors,someofwhicharerelatedtolocalpoliticalrisk.PoliticalRiskFactorsA.Attitudeofconsu

7、mersinthehostcountrySomeconsumersareveryloyaltolocallymanufacturedproducts.B.ActionsofhostgovernmentThehostgovernmentmayimposespecialrequirementsortaxes,restrictfundtransfers,andsubsidizelocalfirms.MNCscanalsobehurtbyalackofrestrictions,suchasfailure

8、toenforcecopyrightlaws.PoliticalRiskFactorsC.BlockageofFundTransfersFundsthatareblockedmaynotbeoptimallyused.Iffundtransfersareblocked,subsidiarieswillhavetoundertakeprojectsthatmaynotbeoptimalfortheMNC.D.CurrencyInconvertibilityTheMNCparentmayneedto