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1、COREU.S.RetailSoftlinesC3Q18To-Date:ToughSleddingWithanumberofSeptemberfiscalquarter-endSoftlinescompanieshavingnowreported(including~1/2ofourcoverage),wetakestockoftheearningsseasonto-dateINDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.RetailSoftlinesNEUTRALUnchangedEquityResearch13Nov
2、ember2018andtheimplicationsfortheremainderofthegroup.Despitesharepricelagsintoresults,quarterlyset-upshaveproventough.Thegroup’sunderperformanceheadingintoresults(-8%from6/30/18through10/18/18,vs.+2%fortheS&P500)ledustoanticipatealoweredexpectations“bar”thisq
3、uarter,butinitialresultscallthisintoquestion.Overall,7/9stockswetrackeddeclinedonthedayofEPS,witheachalsounderperformingtheXRT(Figure2).Bothlowandhighsentimentnameshavebeenaffected,albeitfordifferentreasons.RLandVFCeachoutperformedtheXRTaheadofresults(Figure1
4、)thenunderperformedontheirearningsdaysdespiteEPSbeat&raises,whichweseeasrelevantforoff-pricestocksthathavebeensimilarlyresilientoflate.WethinkBURL,ROST,andTJXarewell-positionedtodeliverstrongabsoluteresultsinC3Q(givenrecentmomentumandtrackrecordsofexceedingqu
5、arterlyguidance)andbelievetheirstructuraladvantagesremainintact,butviewthisbackdropassuggestingcautionmaybewarrantedintoresults(thoughpull-backscouldpotentiallycreateopportunities).Ontheotherhand,HBI,KORS,andTPReachlaggedintoearnings,butwerestillweakonresults
6、(aseachmissedatleastonemetricvs.Consensus).Tous,thissuggeststhatotherrecentlaggards(GIII,GPS,PVH)maysimilarlyfaceahigherdegreeofscrutinythansharepricemovesalonemightsuggest(i.e.recentweaknessmaynothaveloweredexpectations).GIIIandPVH’srecenthistoryofbeatandrai
7、sequarterssuggeststheycouldbebetterpositionedtobuckthisrecenttrendthanGPS,forwhichback-halfvisibilityismoreclouded(thoughwebelieveGPS’valuationremainscompelling).Tariffsareunpredictable,buttheindustryplaybookisbeginningtoemerge.Whiletransferringproductiontoot
8、hercountriesandseekingconcessionsfromChinesemanufacturingpartnershavebeendiscussedaspossibleoffsets(Figure5),wecontinuetobelievepricingwillneedtobetheindustry’sprimaryoffsettoadditionalta
