中国基础再提速

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1、EQUITIESINDUSTRIALSNovember2018By:AndersonChowhttps://www.research.hsbc.comChinaInfrastructureOnthemoveagainWeestimateanadditionalRMB2trnisrequiredbytheendof2019etobringinfrastructurespendinginlinewithgrowthinfixedassetinvestmentCentralgovernmentfinancin

2、gcouldbethekeyfundingsourceaslocalgovernmentscontinuetodeleverageBuyideasincludeCRCC,Gezhouba,AnhuiConch,andCRRCCorpPlayinterviewwithAndersonChowDisclaimer&Disclosures:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappend

3、ix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofitTHISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THE"PRC")(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)Whyreadthisreport?OuranalysisshowsthatChinaneedstoincreaseinfrastructureinvestmentbyRMB

4、2trnbytheendof2019etostabilisethegrowthrateoffixedassetinvestmentataround5%.Weidentifywherethemoneyislikelytobespentandwhythecentralgovernmentislikelytoplayamajorroleinfinancingnewprojectsthroughseveraldifferentchannels.Weshowwhichcompaniesshouldbenefitm

5、ostandwhythiscurrentincreaseininfrastructureinvestmentshouldbemoresustainablethanthoseinthepast.FinancingChina’sinfrastructureRMB2trnIncreaseininfrastructureinvestmentisrequiredtostabilisefixedassetinvestmentgrowthat+5%RMB17.2trnLocalgovernments’explici

6、tdebtasofJuly2018–97%intheformofmunicipalbondsRMB11.9trnWorthofprojectsintheMinistryofFinance’sPPPapproveddatabaseattheendofJune2018China’sfixedassetinvestmentgrowthTotalfixedassetsy-o-y+5%RMB9trnRMB6trnRMB3trn15%10%5%ProvincialmunicipalbondsandLGFVde

7、btoutstandingas%ofgovernmentincome,2017RMB32.8trn19provincesRMB8.8trn10provincesRMB192bn2provincesPPPprojectsbytypeofprojectasat2Q180Jan-180%Sep-1830%-100%100%-150%100%-150%Totalgrossoutputvalueofconstruction(RMBtrn)21.422.523.725.0The3majorinfrastr

8、ucturecontractorscombinedwouldseemarketshareincrease2020e8%7%201720172018e2019e2020eMunicipalprojectsTransportinfrastructuredevelopmentLand13%Others31%27%29%OperatingcashflowsareexpectedtobepositiveinthecomingyearsWehaveBu