全球-家庭安全市场-智能锁是开启智能家居市场的关键（二）.docx

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1、ABGlobalResearch23October2018HomeSecurityMarketEquitiesGlobalIndustrialGoods&ServicesGuillermoPeigneuxLojoAnalystguillermo.peigneux-lojo@ubs.com+44-20-75689016StevenWinokerAnalyststeven.winoker@ubs.com+1-212-7132716PeterLennox-KingAnalystpeter.lennox-king@ubs.com+1-212-7133215FabianHae

2、cki,CFAAnalystfabian.haecki@ubs.com+41-44-2391347MarkusMittermaierAnalystmarkus.mittermaier@ubs.com+41-442397931SvenWeierAnalystsven.weier@ubs.com+49-69-13698278XingzhouLu,CFAAnalystxingzhou.lu@ubs.com+44-2075684820MagnusKruber,CFAAnalystmagnus.kruber@ubs.com+46-8-4537311SupriyaSubrama

3、nianAnalystsupriya.subramanian@ubs.com+44-20-75684819UBSEvidenceLab:SmartLocksKeytotheOpeningoftheSmartHomeMarket(II)UBSEvidenceLab:SmartlockskeytotheopeningthesmarthomemarketOurcollaborationwithUBSEvidenceLabusingremotesensingtechnologies(6sensingwaveswithc.1mndevices/wave,c.2mhouseho

4、ldsin16UScities)illustrateshowSmartHomeandSecurityconnecteddevicescontinuetogainoverallhomesignalshare(10%share)frompreviousreadings(clickhere).Inaddition,ourUBSEvidenceLabsmartlockownership/intentionconsumersurvey,sampling2,400representativeconsumersintheUSandGermanyindicatesthatalmos

5、t1inevery2respondentsislikelytobuyasmartlockoverthenext12months.Consistently,ouranalysisonGooglesearchtrendsshowsanincreasingnumberofsmartlocksearchesworldwide.HomeSecuritygrowthbolsteredby>10%CAGRhomeautomationspendingWebelieveglobalhomeautomationspendingwillcontinuetogrowathealthyrat

6、es(>10%2016-20ECAGR),outperformingtheoverallindustrialsector(weestimateglobalcapitalgoodsgrowthatc.3%to4%),thankstotheincreasingcontributionfromIoThomeinvestments(>30%2016-20ECAGR).Thesetrendsshouldhelpunderpinhomesecuritygrowth,particularlyinthelocksmarket,acceleratingfromhistoricalc.

7、3%growthtorobustmid-singledigitsgrowthrates,onourestimates.SecurityspendingtobenefitSmartLockOEMs:AssaAbloyconvictionBuyWebelievetherisk-rewardprofileoftheindustryisattractive.WepreferbusinesseswithlowervaluationsandhigherexposurestotheHomeAutomationmarket,andwithinthisreportweexpres