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1、cGlobalResearch30October2018ChinaFurnitureSectorEquitiesChinaHouseholdProductsUBSEvidenceLab:Thestartofapricewar?TurningcautiousduetointensifyingcompetitionFollowinguponourstudyin2017,wecollaboratedwithUBSEvidenceLabagaintosurveyc3,000Chineseconsumersin37t
2、ier1-4citiesinJuly2018tobetterunderstandtheirfurniturepurchasebehaviour,perceptionsandbrandpreferences.The2018resultssuggestthecustomizedfurnituresectorisheadingintoapricewarduetohomogeneouscompetitionandchangingconsumerbehaviour,andweexpectfurthermarginpr
3、essureinQ418and2019,particularlyinthecustomizedwardrobeandpremiumsegments.Asweareturningcautiousonthesector'snear-termmarginoutlookandforeseedownsideriskto2019-20consensusEPS,wedowngradeSuofeiyatoNeutralbutmaintainBuyonOppeingivenitslimitednear-termmargind
4、ownsideandlong-termgrowthpotentialinahighlyfragmentedandunderpenetratedmarket.Keyfindingspointtofurthermarginpressureonbrandedcustomproducts1)49%ofrespondentsintier1and2citiesdonotcareaboutthebrandaslongastheproductfitstheirneeds,up9pptfrom2017.2)Oursurvey
5、showedadropinwillingnesstopayapremiumforthebrands:23%ofrespondentssaidtheywoulddefinitelypaymoreforthebestbrands,down8pptYoY.3)Respondents'budgetsintier1citiesfell6.3%YoY,whichweattributetoadiminishingwealtheffectandmacroheadwinds.Thesefindingscouldnegativ
6、elyaffectthepromotionalenvironmentforbrands,especiallypremiumbrands.WeexpectEBITmarginstofall100-300bpsover2019-20,leadingustocutour2018-20EEPSforOppeinandSuofeiyaby10-30%.Near-termpainneededforlong-termgainOurbrandperceptionanalysissuggeststhetopbrandslea
7、dinproductquality,offeringsandbrandimage,reinforcingourconstructiveviewontheirlong-termsharegainpotential.However,bothOppeinandSuofeiyafallshortin"frequentpromotions".Moreover,largeoutletchainshavebecomemorepopularasachannelforpurchasingfurniture,suggestin
8、gmorestoresinthelocalconstructionmaterial(currentlyc30%oftotalstoresoperatedbybrands'distributors)marketneedtobeclosedorrelocated.WepreferOppein(Buy)overSuofeiya(Neutral)afterthesell-offThoughmanynegativesare
