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1、DiscussiononbankcreditriskundertheeconomiccycleAbstractAlongwiththepaceofreformandopeningup,China'scommercialbankshasalsobeenagreatdevelopment.Creditriskhasbeenanimportantfactoraffectingthedevelopmentofthecommercialbanksinthisprocess.Macroeconomiccyclicalfluctuationsasasystemic
2、risk,itisdifficulttoportfoliodispersion.Studyoftheeconomiccycleandtherelationshipofcreditrisk,isofgreatsignificancetoimprovethelevelofcreditriskmanagementofcommercialbanks.Thisarticleistoexploretheimpactofchangesintheeconomiccycleonbankcreditriskfromtheperspectiveoftheeconomicc
3、ycle.Keywords：Economiccycle,thecreditriskofcounter-cyclical1,ChangesincreditrisktrendsintheeconomiccycleEconomiccycle,alsoknownastheeconomiccycleorbusinesscycle,istheregularemergenceofaneconomicphenomenonoftheexpansionandcontractionofoveralleconomicactivitytrends.Inacompleteeco
4、nomiccycle,thepeaksandvalleysaretwoveryimportantturningpoint.Economiccycle,whichiszonedandsystolicexpansion.Wheneconomicvariablesrunfromthevalleytothepeakpoint,theeconomyisinaperiodofexpansion;wheneconomicvariablesfromthepeakpointruntothevalleypoint,theeconomyissystolic.Ifweput
5、thefirsthalfofthestageoftheeconomicexpansionphaseiscalledtherecoveryphase,thesecondhalfiscalledtheboomphase,knownastheeconomiccontractioninthefirsthalfofthedeclinestage,thesecondhalfofthestage,knownastheGreatDepression,theeconomiccyclecanbeclassifiedasarecovery,prosperity,reces
6、sionanddepressionfourstages.Commercialbankcreditriskistheriskthattheloansgrantedbycommercialbankscannotbefullyrecoveredaftertheexpirationoftheprincipalandinterestofthecreditoronlypartiallyrecovertheprincipalandinterestmay.Acorrectunderstandingofthecharacteristicsofcommercialban
7、kcreditriskofcommercialbanksriskmanagement,soundriskmanagementmechanism,reducelossesandincreaserevenue,andenhancethecompetitivenessofbanksisofgreatsignificance.Creditriskisprimarilydeterminedbythedebtor'sownfactorsandmacro-systemfactors,macroeconomicfactorsasasystemicrisk,itisd
8、ifficulttobedispersedinbanks'loanportfolios.Alargenumb
