examc(constructionandevaluationofactuarialmodels)studynote

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1、ExamC(ConstructionandEvaluationofActuarialModels)StudyNoteExamCConstructionandEvaluationofActuarialModelsTheexaminationforthismaterialconsistsoffourhoursofmultiple-choicequestionsandisidenticaltoCASExam4.Thismaterialprovidesanintroductiontomodelingandcoversimportantactuarialmethodsthatare

2、usefulinmodeling.Athoroughknoathematicalstatisticsisassumed.Thecandidateodelingprocessandhos.Thecandidateshouldbeableto:1)analyzedatafromanapplicationinabusinesscontext;2)determineasuitablemodelincludingparametervalues;and3)providemeasuresofconfidencefordecisionsbaseduponthemodel.Thecandi

3、dateodelsonExamM.Avarietyoftablesination.Theseincludevaluesforthestandardnormaldistribution,chi-squaredistribution,andabridgedinventoriesofdiscreteandcontinuousprobabilitydistributions.ThesetablesarealsoavailableontheSOAandCASorCASExam3.Thecandidateisfurtherexpectedtoidentifystepsinthemod

4、elingprocess,understandtheunderlyingassumptionsimplicitineachfamilyofmodels,andrecognizeptionsareapplicableinagivenbusinessapplication.Specifically,thecandidateisexpectedtobeabletoperformthetaskslistedbelopiricalModelsEstimatefailuretimeandlossdistributionsusingKaplan-Meierestimator,inclu

5、dingapproximationsforlargedatasetsNelson-AalenestimatorKerneldensityestimatorsEstimatethevarianceofestimatorsandconfidenceintervalsforfailuretimeandlossdistributions.EstimatefailuretimeandlossdistributionsodelandotherbasicmodelsatingfailuretimeandlossdistributionUnbiasednessConsistencyMea

6、nsquarederrorB.ConstructionandSelectionofParametricModelsEstimatetheparametersoffailuretimeandlossdistributionsusingMaximumlikelihoodMethodofmomentsPercentilematchingBayesianprocedures