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1、手机出货预测20000002,000,000900%90.0%功能手机智能手机比例1,775,0001,800,0001,729,8001,683,6001,628,2001,566,0001,600,0001,499,9001,425,60085.0%1,400,0001,291,20083.0%1,200,000817%81.7%1,000,00080.2%80.0%79.1%800,00078.0%77.0%600,000499,20075.8%454,600448,830440,600430,500414,40075.0%
2、387,800364,000400,000200,00072.1%‐70.0%2014201520162017F2018F2019F2020F2021F摄像头走势2,500,000100.0%后置摄像头前置置摄像头比例95.0%2,122,7002,137,0002,083,5002,038,2001,979,10020000002,000,00019109301,910,930900%90.0%1,833,2001,775,0001,729,8001,700,3001,683,60085.0%1,628,2001,566,000
3、83.1%1,498,50081.9%单1,500,000799%79.9%80.8%80.0%13878001,387,80079.10%位78.4%：75.7%1,155,00075.0%KP1,000,00070.0%S67.9%65.0%500,00060.0%55.0%‐50.0%2014201520162017F2018F2019F2020F2021F后置摄像头像素走势1200%120.0%100.0%80.0%600%60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%2014201520162017F2018F2019F2020
4、F2021F20.0MP+1.1%2.0%1.6%1.5%2.7%3.7%4.5%6.3%16.0MP3.8%5.0%7.8%12.3%16.9%21.6%24.7%27.7%12‐13MP14.2%23.4%41.3%43.6%41.5%39.9%39.5%39.2%7‐8MP30.8%29.0%16.5%14.1%13.1%11.2%10.1%8.0%4‐5MP22.2%15.9%10.9%8.5%8.0%8.5%7.8%6.9%3.0MP5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%2.0MP11.6%12.2%13.3%13.9%14.
5、6%14.0%13.2%11.8%1.3MP3.9%4.0%1.7%0.9%0.3%UnderVGA7.2%6.5%6.2%5.0%2.9%1.1%0.2%0.1%前置摄像头像素走势1200%120.0%100.0%80.0%600%0.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%2014201520162017F2018F2019F2020F2021F20.0MP+0.2%4.9%5.7%6.9%8.5%9.5%16.0MP3.7%7.7%8.9%11.3%12.9%13.4%12‐13MP07%0.7%08%0.8%17%1.7%56%5
6、.6%71%7.1%85%8.5%100%10.0%7‐8MP2.0%4.3%22.3%35.5%40.8%42.9%44.2%45.6%4‐5MP12.4%42.4%53.7%38.8%30.9%26.4%22.5%19.9%3.0MP1.3%0.3%2.0MP314%31.4%239%23.9%118%11.8%90%9.0%74%7.4%52%5.2%34%3.4%16%1.6%1.3MP32.0%15.3%3.1%0.6%UnderVGA20.9%13.1%4.4%1.8%0.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%双摄摄像头走势80
7、0,00045.0%后置双摄前置双摄占比41.6%40.0%700,00039.3%78,00073,00035.0%35.0%数600,000量32320%.0%6800068,000：30.0%K500,00062,000PC25.0%S400,00022.0%20.0%660,50055,500300,000608,000535,50015.0%459,500200,00010.0%289,500289,100000100,00054%5.4%5005.0%2,00078,8001.1%‐‐0.5%8000.0%201420
8、1520162017F2018F2019F2020F2021F
