气温对某农村地区居民循环系统死亡的影响

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1、授予单位代码10089学号或申请号20152257中国图书分类号R181HebeiMedicalUniversity硕士学位论文学术学位气温对某农村地区居民循环系统死亡的影响研究生：王苏玮导师：田庆宝教授崔泽教授专业：流行病学与卫生统计学二级学院：公共卫生学院2018年3月河北医科大学目录中文摘要···········································································1英文摘要·······························

2、············································3研究论文气温对某农村地区居民循环系统死亡的影响研究前言···········································································6材料与方法··································································7结果······································

3、····································11附图··········································································15附表··········································································23讨论································································

4、··········33结论··········································································36参考文献····································································37综述高温与死亡关系研究··················································42致谢·······························

5、·················································55个人简历··········································································56中文摘要气温对某农村地区居民循环系统死亡的影响摘要目的：分析研究区县死亡现状和气温现状，评价每日平均气温对居民死亡的影响效应,为应对气候变化合理配置卫生资源提供依据。方法：本研究收集并描述2016年研究区县死亡率、死因顺位、期望寿命和去死因期望寿命；收集并描

6、述2014-2017年研究区县气象因素和大气污染物浓度；收集2014-2017年研究区县每日死亡数据，应用分布滞后非线性模型与广义线性模型，分析气温(高温、低温)对全死因、心脏病死因和脑血管病死因的影响。结果：1.全人群死因顺位为心脏病、脑血管病、肿瘤、呼吸系统疾病、损伤与中毒。男性和女性的死因顺位与全人群一致。全死因粗死亡率为/10万，心脏病粗死亡率为/10万，脑血管病粗死亡率为/10万。出生期望寿命为80.62岁，男性为78.53岁，女性为82.78岁。心脏病、脑血管疾病所致期望寿命损失居前2位，去掉该死因期望

7、寿命分别可增加9.58年、2.46年，男性分别可增加8.33年、2.52年，女性分别可增加10.57年、2.33年。2.研究区县2014-2017年的四年平均气温为14.8℃，最大值为33.1℃，最小值为-10.9℃，中位数为15.9℃。日平均气温随着季节变化而呈周期性变化，每年7月气温最高，12月和次年1月气温最低。每日平均气温和每日相对湿度、每日平均风速为正相关，与PM10、PM2.5、N02、S02浓度为负相关。3.每日全死因死亡人数、心脏病死亡人数、脑血管疾病死亡人数随季节变化而变化，冬季11月、12月死亡

8、人数最多。气温对死亡的影响大致呈“U”型，最适温度为19-21℃。4.以20℃为参照温度，当气温每下降1℃，冷效应引起的全死因、心脏病死因、脑血管病死因超额死亡风险约为3.61%、2.56%、1中文摘要3.90%。当气温在20℃每上升1℃，热效应引起的全死因、心脏病死因、脑血管病死因超额死亡风险约为4.27%、5.71%、10.53%。对比上升和下降相同温度