公开课总结版 金融市场 希勒

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1、金融原理Lecture1efficientmarkets有效市场Sothismerrybandoffinancialtheoryprofessorsdidn'treallybelieveinregulation.所以这批开心的金融理论教授并不真正认同（对市场的）管制Theybelievedmarketsleftunfetteredworkedbestofall.他们认为不受约束的市场是最优的Theybelievedinwhattheycalledefficientmarketsandtheideathatassetpricesreflectalltheavailableposs

2、ibleinformation.他们坚信所谓的有效市以及资产价格反映了所有可获得信息Soanimplicationofthatisthatifyouwanttofindoutwhetheracompany'sdoingwellornotyoudon'thavetotakethetroubletoreadalltheirfinancialreportsjustlookattheirstockprice.Ifyouwantedtoknowwhetheracountry'sdoingwellornotyoudon'thavetostudyitsentirepoliticalsyste

3、mandcurrentevents,justlookatthegeneralstockmarketofthecountryandthat'lltellyou.Theybelievedthatyoucouldmakeasgoodreturnsinthemarketasalaypersonasyoucouldasanexpertbecausealltheexpertswerecompetingtotryandgetthebestpossibleprice,andsothepriceitselfreflectedalltheirknowledgeandwisdomandopinion

4、sandsothelaypersoncouldtakeadvantageofthatbybuyingstocks.Everybodyshouldbeaninvestor,theyfelt.So,acriticalpartoftheirtheorywasthatthemarketsweresoefficient,drivenbypeoplelikethemwhoarecompetingtoexploiteveryadvantageandthereforecompeteawayeveryadvantageandbydoingthatputalltheinformationtheyh

5、aveintotheprices.Theimplicationofthattheoryisthatthere'sanextraordinarilycleverwayofcomputingthevalueofmostinvestmentassets,andaboutdecidingwhenafinancialdecision'sagoodthingtodoornotandthatwastheheartofwhattheytaughtinthesebusinessschools,thesealgorithmsforvaluingassetsandmakingoptimalfinan

6、cialdecisions.这个理论意味着存在一种极其巧妙的方法能计算大部分投资资产的价值和判断金融决策在何时更为恰当这就是他们在商学院所教课程的核心包括资产评估算法和最优金融决策算法SoasyouknowShillerhasbeenverycriticalofthebusinessefficientmarketstradition.Hefeelsthatthesefinanceprofessorsleftsomethingessentialoutofthewholestory.Whattheyleftoutwaspsychology.Theyleftouttheideaoff

7、ads,andrumorsandnarratives,whichhethinkshasasbiganeffectonpricesasthehardinformationaboutprofitsthatthebusinessschoolprofessorsimagineddroveprofits.你们应该知道的是席勒并不是很认同有效市场这一传统理论。他觉得这些金融学教授在整个体系中忽略了很重要的东西，也就是心理因素。他们忽略了人们的狂热和流言蜚语的作用席勒认为这些因素对价格也有巨大影响，不逊于