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1、SeptemberdatashowednationalnewhomesalesturnednegativeonYoYbasiswhilepropertyinvestmentgrowthalsostartedtoretreat,inlinewithourexpectationthattheChinarealestatemarkethasreachedaturningpointintermsofsupplyanddemanddynamics,andweexpectitmayweakenfurtherincomingquarters.However,adraftp
2、ersonalincometaxpolicyreleasedovertheweekendelaboratingnewdeductiblesunderscorespolicymakers’commitmenttosupportingtheeconomy.WethusupgradeoursectorratingfromUnderweighttoEqualweight,andhighlightattractivecurrentvaluations.Deceleratingsales.China’snewhomesalesamountedto1.0bnsqminJa
3、nuary-September(+3.3%YoY;vs+4.1%YoYinJanuary-August),whileSeptembersalesfell0.8%YoYto146msqm,deceleratingfrom11%YoYinJulyand2.8%YoYinAugust.NewhomesalesbyvaluereachedRmb8.8tninJanuary-September(+15.6%YoY;vs+16.4%YoYinJanuary-August),whileSeptembersalescametoRmb1.3tnwithmonthlygrowt
4、hslowingfrom24.8%YoYinJulyand17.8%YoYinAugustto11%YoYinSeptember,implyinganaveragesellingpriceofRmb8,539/sqminJanuary-September(+11.9%YoY)withresilientmonthlygrowthat11.9%YoYinSeptember.Weakeninginvestment.PropertyinvestmentreachedRmb8.9tninJanuary-September(+9.9%YoY;vs.+10.1%YoYin
5、January-August),whileSeptemberinvestmentcametoRmb1.2tnwithmonthlygrowthdeceleratingto+8.9%YoY,vs.13.2%YoYinJulyand9.2%YoYinAugust.Whilenewstartsgrowthremainedsteadyat16%YoYinJanuary-September,wenotethatmonthlygrowthcontinuedtoslow,from29%YoYinJulyand27%YoYinAugustto20%YoYinSeptembe
6、r;completedareagrowthfell9%YoYinSeptember,a13thconsecutivemonthofdeclining.AlthoughmonthlylandpurchasescontinuedtogrowinSeptember,at16%YoYintermsofarea(+19%YoYbyvalue),thiscompareswithgrowthof45%YoYbyarea(32%YoYbyvalue)inAugustandweexpectitmaydropfurtherasaresultoftheweakeningsigns
7、aroundthelandmarketsince3Qthisyear.Taxcut.Asafollow-uptoeffortstoliftallowancesforindividualincometaxearlierinOctober,theStateAdministrationofTaxationreleasedadraftforpublicfeedbackon20Octoberelaboratingsixnewdeductibles–children’seducation(Rmb1,000/monthperchild),continuingeducati
8、on(Rmb300-400/monthpertaxp
