美国财产保险：飓风造成的汽车损失低于预期

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1、12October2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchProperty&CasualtyInsuranceCOMMENTProperty&CasualtyInsuranceResearchAnalystsMichaelZaremski2123255061michael.zaremski@credit-suisse.comAutoLossesFromHurricane’sLessThanPreviouslyExpected:UpdatedLossStatisticsFigure1:InsuredLossBreakdown:Hurricane

2、svsAllCatastrophesSource:ISOnet,BLS,CreditSuisseestimates.■LessAutoLossesThanWeHadPreviouslyEstimated:Wehavelearnedthatautomobilelosseshavehistoricallyaccountedforonly5-7%oftotalFloridahurricaneinsuredlosses.■Wide$3.5-$9bnLossRangeCurrently.Historically,4QUSAcatastrophelosseshavetotaled$5bn.8

3、4%of4QlosseshaveoccurredduringthemonthofOctober.Weestimate4QCATloadsformostcompaniesundercoverageareontracktonotbebreachedsolongasMichael’slossesfallbelow$6bn.Weestimatethemagicnumberisahigher$6bnversusthe$5bnhistorical10-yrlevelbecauseoverthepastdecade,mostnationalinsurancecarriershaveboth1)

4、transferredincreasedlevelsofFloridarisktoreinsurersand2)pulledbackfromFloridariskaltogether.■EPSChanges:Weareloweringour4Q’18EPSestimatesforbothCINF(from$0.97to$0.89)andPGR(from$1.02to$0.92)givenouranalysispointstoahighlikelihoodofourprevious4QCATloadsbeingbreachedoverthecourseof4Q’18.DISCLOS

5、UREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestt

6、hatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.12October2018Assumptions:Ourscenarioanalysisleverages2017fullyearmarketsharedata.Weassume70%,25%,and5%ofinsuredlosseswillstemfromFlorida,Georgia,andAlabamarespectively(

7、Althoughweknowaportionoflosseswillarisefromothersoutheasternstates).Additionally,weassumethat28%,5%,and68%oftotalindustryinsuredlosseswillarisefromcommercial,privateautomobile,andhomeowner’slinesofbusiness,respectively.Thislossbreakdownisbase