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1、ClassifiedIndex:U.D.CCOAD:10075NO:20090150ADissertationfortheMaster’sDegreeofeconomicsEquilibriumanalysisonconsumptionandinvestmentofHebeiProvinceCandidate:YuFengruSupervisor:Prof.DongZhengxinAcademicDegreeAppliedfor:MasterofEconomicsSpecialty:StatisticsUniversity:HebeiUniversityDataofOralExa
2、mination:June,2012摘要摘要消费与投资对经济增长的影响一直是国家关注的重点，消费与投资就像是跷跷板的两头，只有均衡调节才会一直处在理想状态，合理的消费与投资比例会带动经济协调发展，消费与投资相辅相成，投资增长对消费起到主导性引导。不合理的消费与投资比例会严重影响到经济的增长，消费与投资比例失衡会影响到经济的协调发展，对于消费与投资比例失衡应当引起足够重视。本文首先对居民收入增长率下降、居民收入差距、消费倾向偏低、农村居民收入影响消费率的因素和高储蓄率、政府主导性投资超常增加、固定资产高速增长、人口年龄结构影响投资的因素进行定性分析，然后用状态空间模型得出消费与投资
3、系数对消费与投资进行定量分析，得出现阶段投资率的变动大于消费的变动，通过建立误差修正模型得出上期地区生产总值的提高程度相对于消费投资系数增加值水平来说偏低，所以为了提高地区生产总值就必须要协调好消费与投资比例之间的关系，最后本文对优化消费投资比例提出对策建议。对优化消费的对策建议包括关注工资制度，提高居民收入；调节收入分配,缩小收入差距；拉动消费,提高居民消费倾向；增加农村居民收入，扩大消费需求。对优化投资的对策建议包括降低高储蓄率，将储蓄转化为投资；优化政府主导性投资，提高投资效率；适当调节投资方向，优化投资结构；发展老年基金，减少储蓄。关键词消费投资均衡消费与投资系数状态空间
4、模型IAbstractAbstractConsumptionandinvestmenthavebeenthefocusofinfluenceoneconomicgrowth,bothconsumptionandinvestmentislikeaseesaw,onlythebalanceadjustmentwouldhavebeeningoodcondition,rationalratioofconsumptionandinvestmentwillleadtoeconomicdevelopment,complementarytoconsumptionandinvestment,inv
5、estmentgrowthinconsumptionhasplayedaleadingguide.Unreasonableratioofconsumptionandinvestmentwillseriouslyaffecttheeconomicgrowth,consumptionandinvestmentimbalancewillaffectthecoordinationofeconomicdevelopment,soweshouldpaysufficientattentiontoconsumptionandinvestmentimbalance.Firstofall,thisar
6、ticleanalyzethefactorsofinfluencingtheconsumption,whichresidentsincomegrowthratesdecline,incomegaps,lowconsumption,farmers'income;andaffectingtheinvestment,whichhighsavingsrates,increasedgovernmentinvestmentofsupernormalandfixedassetgrowth,populationagestructureofqualitativeanalysis.Thenwithth
7、estatespacemodelcameconsumptionandinvestmentcoefficientonconsumptionandinvestmentforquantitativeanalysis,cameatthisstageinvestmentrateofchangesisgreaterthanconsumptionofchanges,byestablishederrorsamendmentmodelthattheperiodofGDPincrease
