上海市老年长期护理(ltc)供需实证研究

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1、EMPIRICALSTUDYONDEMANDANDSUPPLYOFLONGTERMCAREFORTHEEDERLYINSHANGHAIABSTRACTAstheevergrowingtrendoftheeldly,theincreaserateofchronicdiseaseandthechangeoffamilystructuremakethelong-termcare(LTC)fortheagedmoreandmoreimportant.Thus,itisverymeanfultoknowthepres

2、entstatusofdemandandsupplyoflong-termcareinShanghaifortheLTCsystemconstructing,servicesupplytomeettheelderlyLTCdemandandfacingthechallengebroughtbythetrendoftheeldlytosecurethelivingqualityoftheoldandconstructtheharmonysociety.Fortheempiricalstudyondemand,

3、subjectivedemand,objectivedemand,capacitytopayandwillingnesstopayareinvestigatedandanalysedstatisticalybyquestionnairesurveyandfieldobservationsandtheLTCdemandoftheeldlyinShanghaiissummarizedandextracted.Basedonthedataofdisabilityratiosoftheeldlyacquiredby

4、questionnairesurveyandliteraturesearch,therelationshipofthedisabilityratiosoftheeldlyandtheagesisanalysedbyLogisticmodelandtheratiosthatdifferentagegroupscorrespondingtoarecaculated.Thenwiththedataoftheamountoftheeldlyabove65fromdifferentagegroupsinShangha

5、ifrom2010to2021predictedbythemethodoftendencyamendmentmovingaverage,thetotalamountandstructureoftheeldlyabove65inShanghaiarepredicted.Thepredictedresultsrevealthattherewillbe468.5thousandoldpeoplewhoneedlong-termcarein2020.Onthebasisofdifferentdemands,theb

6、edspacesofcommunitycaringandinstitutioncaringinShanghaifrom2010to2021arepredictedrespectively.UsingthemethodofISM,theinfluencingfactorsofLTCexpensesareanalysedandtheresultrevealsthattheamountoftheedlythatneedLTCandtheLTCpatternchoicesarethetopinfluencingfa

7、ctors.Thus,withthepredicteddataofthetwofactors,thetotalamountandstructureoftheLTCexpensesarepredictedinthreeschemeswhicharethehigh,themiddleandthelow.TheIIIpredictedresultsrevealthatin2020theLTCexpenseswillbe6.565to9.078billionyuan.Fortheempiricalstudyonsu

8、pply,LTCservicesupplyareanalysedandappraisedfromquantity,structureandqualityrespectivelyandtheresultrevealsthattheratioofdemandfulfillmentismerely13%whichisrathersevere.AnalysetheinfluencingfactorsofLTCsupply