高等教育办学规模预测与调控研究

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1、目录摘要................................................................................................................................IAbstract...........................................................................................................................V绪论...............

2、..................................................................................................................1一、背景与问题........................................................................................................1（一）教育规划中对教育发展规模的表述.....................................

3、................1（二）高等教育发展规模与质量、结构、效益的矛盾.................................3（三）办学经费与招生规模之间的矛盾.........................................................4（四）从过去和现在可以推测未来吗.............................................................6（五）如何从过去和现在推测高等教育发展规模..................................

4、.......8二、核心概念..........................................................................................................10（一）高等教育...............................................................................................10（二）高等教育办学规模.............................................

5、..................................12（三）预测.......................................................................................................16（四）调控.......................................................................................................20三、文献综述....................

6、......................................................................................24（一）预测的价值讨论...................................................................................24（二）影响因素............................................................................................

7、...29（三）确定与不确定.......................................................................................34（四）趋势与规律...........................................................................................36（五）可能或精确......................................................................

8、.....................38（六）