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1、AClimateWhodunit(1)Tothosewhoareconvincedthatthescienceofglobalwarmingissound,aswellastothoseonthefence,therefusalofclimatescientiststoattributeanysingleepisodeofextremeweathertogreenhouse–inducedclimatechangehasbeeneitherexasperating…orsuspicious.(2)Youmeanyouguyscan’tdefinitelys
2、ayhuman-causedclimatechangeiswhy135dailyrainfallrecordswerebrokenalongtheEastCoastduringlastSeptember’sdeluges?Youcan’tsayclimatechangeiswhy2010iseclipsing1998asthehottestyearonrecord,orwhyinAugustaniceislandfourtimesthesizeofManhattanbrokeofffromaGreenlandglacier?Howaboutwhy2000-
3、2009wasthewarmestdecadeonrecord,whyMoscowsufferedaonce-in-centuriesheatwavelastsummer,orwhyonefifthofPakistanflooded?Inshort,no.Nomatterhowbizarretheweather,themantraofclimatologistshasbeentheonecannotattributeanysingleeventtochangingclimate.Allsciencecandoisconcludethatextremeeve
4、ntsaregettingmorelikelyashumankindpumpsmoregreenhousegasesintotheatmosphere.Finally,climatescientistsseeawaytostopbeingsowishy-washyandstartassigningblame,throughatechniquecalled“fractionalriskattribution”.Thistechniqueusesmathematicalmodelsofhowtheatmospherewouldworkifwehadnotgoo
5、sedcarbondioxideto389ppm(from278beforetheIndustrialRevolution),plusdataaboutancient(“paleo”)climatesandhistorical(morerecent)weather.Theideaistocalculatehowmanytimesanextremeeventshouldhaveoccurredabsenthumaninterference,explainclimatescientistBenSanterofLawrenceLivermoreNationalL
6、ab,andtheprobabilityofthesameextremeeventintoday’sgreenhouse-forcedatmosphere.Result:puttingnumbersonextremeweather.Intheirbiggestsuccess,climatescientistsledbyPeterStottoftheBritishMetOficeanalyzedthe2003Europeanheatwave,whenthemercuryrosehigherthanatanytimesincetheintroductionof
7、weatherinstruments(1851),andprobablysinceatleast1500.Afterplugginginhistoricalandpaleodata,andworkingoutclimatepatternsinahypotheticalworldwithoutahuman-causedgreenhouseeffect,theyconcludethatourmeddlingwas75percenttoblamefortheheatwave.Putanotherway,wemorethandoubledthechancethat
8、itwouldhappen,andit’stwiceaslikel
