泛读英语第四册unit2课文及翻译

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1、ThePopulationSurprise（出人意料的人口变化）Text1ThePopulationSurprisebyMaxSingerWilltheworld'spopulationkeepincreasingascommonlybelieved?Whatarethefactorsthataccountforitschange?Pleasereadthefollowingarticleandmakeoutitsviewpoints.Fiftyyearsfromnowtheworld'spopulationwillbede

2、clining,withnoendinsight.Unlesspeople'svalueschangegreatly,severalcenturiesfromnowtherecouldbefewerpeoplelivingintheentireworldthanintheUnitedStatestoday.Thebigsurpriseofthepasttwentyyearsisthatinnotonecountrydidfertilitystopfallingwhenitreachedthereplacementrate－2

3、.1childrenperwoman.InItaly,forexample,theratehasfallento1.2.InWesternEuropeasawholeandinJapanitisdownto1.5.Theevidencenowindicatesthatwithinfiftyyearsorsoworldpopulationwillpeakatabouteightbillionbeforestartingafairlyrapiddecline.Becauseinthepasttwocenturiesworldpo

4、pulationhasincreasedfromonebilliontonearlysixbillion,manypeoplestillfearthatitwillkeep“exploding”untiltherearetoomanypeoplefortheearthtosupport.Butthatislikefearingthatyourbabywillgrowto1000poundsbecauseitsweightdoublesthreetimesinitsfirstsevenyears.Worldpopulation

5、wasgrowingbytwopercentayearinthe1960s;therateisnowdowntoonepercentayear,andifthepatternsofthepastcenturydon'tchangeradically,itwillheadintonegativenumbers.Thisviewiscomingtobewidelyacceptedamongpopulationexperts,evenasthepubliccontinuestofocusonthethreatofuncontrol

6、ledpopulationgrowth.AslongagoasSeptemberof1974ScientificAmericanpublishedaspecialissueonpopulationthatdescribedwhatdemographers1hadbeguncallingthe“demographictransition”fromtraditionalhighratesofbirthanddeathtothelowonesofmodernsociety.Theexpertsbelievedthatbirthan

7、ddeathrateswouldbemoreorlessequalinthefuture,astheyhadbeeninthepast,keepingtotalpopulationstableafteralevelof10-12billionpeoplewasreachedduringthetransition.Developmentsoverthepasttwentyyearsshowthattheexpertswererightinthinkingthatpopulationwon'tkeepgoingupforever

8、.Theywerewronginthinkingthatafteritstopsgoingup,itwillstaylevel.Theexperts'assumptionthatpopulationwouldstabilizebecausebirthrateswouldstopfallin