smallpox epidemics using a computational model利用一个计算机模型预防天花课件

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1、PreventingSmallpoxEpidemicsUsingaComputationalModelByChintanHossainandHirenPatelFactsAboutSmallpoxSymptomsoccurinstagesHighlycontagious(causesepidemics)Fatalin30%casesThereisavaccine-DeathmayoccurGOAL(Objective)Preventsmallpoxepidemicsvia.vaccination.Vac

2、cinateasfewaspossiblebecause:1.Minimizereactions2.ReducecostHYPOTHESIS:Vaccinatingcertainpercentageofthepopulationmaybesufficienttopreventasmallpoxepidemic.StagesofSmallpoxNormal(Susceptible)Immune(orvaccinated)IncubationFirstStageEarlySymptomsLateSymptoms

3、DeathVaccinationContraction14days3days9daysRecovery9days0.1%chance/day0.5%chance/day3.0%chance/dayNormal(Susceptible)IncubationDeathFirstStageLateSymptomsEarlySymptomsImmuneVaccinatedOurModel:SocialNetworksCliquesRepresent:FamiliesWorkplacesSchoolOurSocie

4、tyGeneratorAlgorithmUserandomnumberstopickafamilysize.Generateacliqueofthatsize.Repeattocreatemorefamilies.Useasimilartechniquetogenerateschoolsandworkplaces.Schoolsandworkplacesconnectexistingvertices,notnewvertices.OurModelComesAlive!MARKOVGRAPH+SOCIETY

5、NETWORKSIMULATIONAdvancetime1daySpreadDiseaseAdvanceStagesDeathNormal(Susceptible)InfectedStageVaccinated/ImmuneDeathFIRSTSpreadEARLYLATEIncubationDEADProcedureRunthesocietygeneratorVaccinatek%ofpeoplewithmostfriends(verticeswiththegreatestdegree)Contr

6、ol:k=0%Variable:Varypercent,k,vaccinatedRandomly,infectoneperson.Runsimulation,andobserveresults(percentinfectandlengthofepidemic)OURPROGRAMResultsEpidemicsintensify,reachapeak,andthenvanishVaccinationreducesintensityandspeed.Results(cont…)Vaccinatingmorep

7、eopledecreasesthe%infectedThe%infectedbecomessmallifover50%arevaccinated.ConclusionVaccinating50%ofthepopulationeffectivelypreventsepidemics.Vaccinatinglessthan50%maynotpreventanepidemic,butitreducestheseverityandspeedoftheepidemic.Thismodelcanbeusedforoth

8、erdiseasesbychangingtheMarkovGraph.