清华大学中级微观经济学讲义12课件

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1、http://www.sem.tsinghua.edu.cn/ChapterTwelveUncertainty(不确定性)Whatdowedointhechapter?WearestillinPart1ofthe3partsofconsumerchoiceproblems;Butwestudytheconsumerchoicesoveruncertainoutcomes;Wefirstworkouttheconsumer’snewbudgetconstraint;Wethenworkoutconsumerpr

2、eferences;Wefinallyarriveatconsumer’soptimalchoice.UncertaintyisPervasiveWhatisuncertainineconomicsystems?tomorrow’spricesfuturewealthfutureavailabilityofcommoditiespresentandfutureactionsofotherpeople.UncertaintyisPervasiveWhatarerationalresponsestouncerta

3、inty?buyinginsurance(health,life,auto)aportfolioofcontingentconsumptiongoods.StatesofNaturePossiblestatesofNature:“caraccident”(a)“nocaraccident”(na).Accidentoccurswithprobabilitya,doesnotwithprobabilityna;a+na=1.Accidentcausesalossof$L.ContingenciesAc

4、ontractimplementedonlywhenaparticularstateofNatureoccursisstate-contingent.E.g.theinsurerpaysonlyifthereisanaccident.ContingenciesAstate-contingentconsumptionplanisimplementedonlywhenaparticularstateofNatureoccurs.E.g.takeavacationonlyifthereisnoaccident.St

5、ate-ContingentBudgetConstraintsEach$1ofaccidentinsurancecosts.Consumerhas$mofwealth.Cnaisconsumptionvalueintheno-accidentstate.Caisconsumptionvalueintheaccidentstate.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCa2017Astate-contingentconsumptionwith$17consumptionv

6、alueintheaccidentstateand$20consumptionvalueintheno-accidentstate.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsWithoutinsurance,Ca=m-LCna=m.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCamTheendowmentbundle.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-K.Ca=m

7、-L-K+K=m-L+(1-)K.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-K.Ca=m-L-K+K=m-L+(1-)K.SoK=(Ca-m+L)/(1-)State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-K.Ca=m-L-K+K=m-L+(1-)K.SoK=(Ca-m+L)/(1-)AndCna=m-(Ca-m+L)/(1-

8、)State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsBuy$Kofaccidentinsurance.Cna=m-K.Ca=m-L-K+K=m-L+(1-)K.SoK=(Ca-m+L)/(1-)AndCna=m-(Ca-m+L)/(1-)I.e.State-ContingentBudgetConstraintsCnaCamTheendowmentbundle.Where