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影响房地产行业利润的因素分析一、引言房地产业是进行房地产类投资、开发、经营、管理和服务的行业，属于第三产业。主要包括：土地开发、房屋的建设、转让、租赁、维修、管理以及由此形成的市场。我国房地产业从20世纪80年代开始兴起,1998年房地产业开始真正发展起来。从2002年开始,我国房价节节攀升,房地产业成为一个新的经济增长点,一直备受关注。直到2007年底开始出现房地产市场有价无市的现象,紧接着就迎来了2008年的房市低迷。低迷到有些地区的金融受到冲击,在国家进行一系列政策调整后,2009年房市出现大反弹,房价一直飙升至2010年底。2011年以来,为了促进房地产业平稳健康发展，国家近几年来加大了对房地产市场的调控力度。房价涨幅得到控制,有些地区已经出现下降趋势。房地产业是我国支柱性产业，是具有基础性和先导性的产业，在国民经济中起重要作用，是增强国民经济和改善人民生活的重要产业。房地产业能够直接推动经济的增长，而经济的增长的同时也能带动房地产业的增长。房地产业具有很强的关联效应，它的兴旺繁荣能够有力地带动很多产业的发展。促进房地产业健康发展，是提高居民住房水平，改善居住质量，满足人民群众物资文化生活需要的基本需求。房地产业对财政收入的贡献也在不断加大，它既是政府的集中性分配活动，又是国家进行宏观调控的重要工具。因此，房地产行业的发展对国家经济运行具有重要的作用。利润是一个企业生存和发展的基础，同时它也是投资者进行投资决策的最重要影响决策之一。企业利润是指企业在一定会计期间的经营成果。企业只有不断提高企业的盈利水平，增强企业的盈利能力，才能在残酷的市场环境中生存，具有无限的生命力。这就需要企业必须探索适合本企业特点的提高利润的有效途径。因而对房地产行业利润的影响因素的分析十分重要。‘二、文献综述DhaouiAbderrazak，Ouidad5.1-9,,services,andmakethecitymoreattractive,strengtheningpublictransportinvestment,establishedasthebackboneoftheurbanrailtransitmulti-level,multi-functionalpublictransportsystem,thusprotectingtheregionalpositionandachieve Yousfi（2010）研究了目前的研发战略的决定因素和分析对财务绩效与盈余管理的权力下放的R&D的影响，研究结果表明跨国公司的研发权力下放，以改善公司的盈利能力，而管理人员的优势，可以得到一些私人和非转让的盈余管理而增加的好处。因为产生这样的结果就会鼓励人们分散自己的研发，以增加盈余管理。刘平和张红（2006）在《我国房地产上市公司盈利能力及其影响因素》一文中，从每股净资产、每股收益、净资产收益率、主营业务收和主营业务利润水平五个方面对房地产行业的利润水平进行了描述性统计，影响房地产行业盈利的因素从主营业务成本，负债总额，存货和折旧额等方面说明了其对盈利的影响。田慧在《论提高企业利润的途径》中提出，企业要提高利润最重要的就是要做到开源，寻求利润新的增长点。需要企业进行多方面的创新，通过实施产品创新、市场创新以及客户管理创新来达到培养利润新的增长点、提高企业利润的目的。邓聿文在《房地产行业高利润从何而来》中指出，房地产业的利润大大高于其他行业，房地产行业高利润的三个来源，究其根源，都与政府有关。土地批租是地方政府直接垄断形成的；征地和拆迁中的低补偿是由于地方政府制定了偏向房地产企业的法规而造成的。偷漏税也与对房地产企业的税种过多以及税制结构不合理有直接关系。吴静在《发展房地产产业投资基金拓宽房地产融资渠道》一文中提出，我国房地产金融市场主要以银行信贷为主，其他金融方式如上市融资、信托融资、债券融资以及基金融资等所占比例较小。银行一直以来都是房地产市场的主要资金提供者，大约70％的房地产开发资金来自银行贷款。因此，她主张要发展房地产产业投资基金，有助于降低因过分依赖银行而带来的系统风斛引。赵中秋、冉伦（2005）探讨了房地产融资的策略及金融业发展创新的方向。借鉴发达国家的经验，采用比较分析、相关分析等方法，分析了目前我国房地产行业融资渠道的现状及存在的问题，在此基础上，提出了今后房地产行业在融资渠道及金融创新方面的建议，指出我国必须培育发达的资本市场并提供尽可能多的融资渠道从而减少房地产中的金融风险。黄明、郭大伟在《浅谈企业盈利能力的分析》说，盈利能力通常是指企业在一定时期内赚取利润的能力。盈利能力的大小是—5.1-9,,services,andmakethecitymoreattractive,strengtheningpublictransportinvestment,establishedasthebackboneoftheurbanrailtransitmulti-level,multi-functionalpublictransportsystem,thusprotectingtheregionalpositionandachieve 个相对的概念，即利润相对于一定的资源投入、一定的收入而言。利润率越高，盈利能力越强；利润率越低，盈利能力越差。企业经营业绩的好坏最终可通过企业的盈利能力来反映。无论是企业的经理人员、债权人，还是股东(投资人)都非常关心企业的盈利能力，并重视对利润率及其变动趋势的分析与预测。三、建立模型1、选择变量对于这个模型，选取房地产开发企业资金来源小计、房地产开发企业本年完成投资额、商品房销售面积、商品房平均销售价格以及城乡居民人民币储蓄存款年度余额为变量（1）房地产开发企业资金来源小计。我国房地产资金构成主要由国家预算内资金、国内贷款、债券、利用外资、自筹资金和其他资金来源组成。但根据估算，房地产开发商的自筹资金10％是由个人住房贷款形成的，其他资金来源大约有20％～30％间接来源于银行贷款，总体测算，房地产开发投资资金约有60％来自银行贷款。我国房地产融资对银行贷款的依赖程度仍很高。（2）房地产开发企业本年完成投资额。房地产开发投资指各种登记注册类型的房地产开发法人单位统一开发的包括统代建、拆迁还建的住宅、厂房、仓库、饭店、宾馆、度假村、写字楼、办公楼等房屋建筑物，配套的服务设施，土地开发工程(如道路、给水、排水、供电、供热、通讯、平整场地等基础设施工程)和土地购置的投资；不包括单纯的土地开发和交易活动。（3）商品房销售面积。商品房销售面积指报告期内出售商品房屋的合同总面积(即双方签署的正式买卖合同中所确定的建筑面积)。由现房销售建筑面积和期房销售建筑面积两部分组成。（4）商品房平均销售价格。商品房作为房地产行业的销售支柱，其销售价格会对房地产行业营业利润产生重大影响。而如今房价的飞速增长对房地产行业利润的获得有着深远的影响。虽然近几年国家采取了一系列的宏观调控政策来抑制房价的过快增长，使得房地产价格增速放缓，但房价出现大幅下跌的可能性并不大。因此房价在很大程度上还是影响着房地产行业销售利润。（5）城乡居民人民币储蓄存款年度余额。5.1-9,,services,andmakethecitymoreattractive,strengtheningpublictransportinvestment,establishedasthebackboneoftheurbanrailtransitmulti-level,multi-functionalpublictransportsystem,thusprotectingtheregionalpositionandachieve 人民币储蓄存款余额是指城乡居民在某一时点上在银行和其他金融机构的人民币储蓄存款总额。购房不仅要看当前的收入，还要看过去的收入和未来的收入。过去的收入主要就是指消费者的储蓄存款，储蓄存款能大大增强消费者的信心，而未来的收入又关系到其信贷消费。2、模型设定模型可以设立为：其中：Y：房地产开发企业营业利润(亿元)X1：房地产开发企业资金来源小计(亿元)X2：房地产开发企业本年完成投资额(亿元)X3：商品房销售面积(万平方米)X4：商品房平均销售价格(元/平方米)X5：城乡居民人民币储蓄存款年底余额(亿元)Ｕ：随机扰动项3、选择数据房地产开发企业营业利润(亿元)房地产开发企业资金来源小计(亿元)房地产开发企业本年完成投资额(亿元)商品房销售面积(万平方米)商品房平均销售价格(元/平方米)城乡居民人民币储蓄存款年底余额(亿元)2000年73.285,997.634984.0518637.13211264332.382001年125.477,696.396344.1122411.9217073762.432002年252.919,749.957790.9226808.29225086910.652003年430.3713,196.9210153.833717.632359103617.652004年857.9717,168.7713158.2538231.642778119555.392005年1109.1921,397.8415909.2555486.223167.66141050.992006年1669.8927,135.5519422.9261857.073366.79161587.32007年2436.6137,477.9625288.8477354.723863.9172534.192008年3432.2339,619.3631203.1965969.833800217885.352009年4728.5857,799.0436241.81947554681260771.662010年6111.4872,944.0448259.4104764.655032303302.492011年5798.5885,688.7361796.89109366.755357.1343635.895.1-9,,services,andmakethecitymoreattractive,strengtheningpublictransportinvestment,establishedasthebackboneoftheurbanrailtransitmulti-level,multi-functionalpublictransportsystem,thusprotectingtheregionalpositionandachieve 数据来源：国家统计局1.商品房销售额是当期累计数据。2.城乡居民储蓄数据来源于人民银行。4、参数估计DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/02/13Time:20:19Sample:20002011Includedobservations:12VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C-3285.9632121.909-1.5485880.1725X10.1071530.0508072.1090340.0795X2-0.1507410.069565-2.1669000.0734X3-0.0481450.036172-1.3309790.2315X41.3466841.4861010.9061860.3998X50.0221340.0123321.7948870.1228R-squared0.987223 Meandependentvar2252.213AdjustedR-squared0.976575 S.D.dependentvar2240.254S.E.ofregression342.8790 Akaikeinfocriterion14.81949Sumsquaredresid705396.0 Schwarzcriterion15.06194Loglikelihood-82.91691 Hannan-Quinncriter.14.72972F-statistic92.71511 Durbin-Watsonstat2.308253Prob(F-statistic)0.000013t=(-1.548588)(2.109034)(-2.166900)(-1.330979)(0.906186)(1.794887)=0.987223S.E.=342.8790F=92.71511D-W=2.308253四、结果分析1、统计推断检验（1）拟合优度：由上表数据可得=0.987223，修正可决系数=0.95345（2）F检验：给定显著性水平为=0.05，则F=92.71511>=3.97，应拒绝原假设，说明回归方程显著。（3）t检验：给定显著性水平=0.05，查t分布表得（7）=2.44695.1-9,,services,andmakethecitymoreattractive,strengtheningpublictransportinvestment,establishedasthebackboneoftheurbanrailtransitmulti-level,multi-functionalpublictransportsystem,thusprotectingtheregionalpositionandachieve ，对应表中数据，、、、、的绝对值均小于临界值，说明、、、、这三个变量对Y的影响不显著怀疑存在多重共线性的影响使其t值不显著。2、计量经济学检验（1）多重共线性检验采用简单相关系数矩阵法对其进行检验：X1X2X3X4X5X1 1.000000 0.994300 0.968707 0.984409 0.992342X2 0.994300 1.000000 0.952099 0.972787 0.990626X3 0.968707 0.952099 1.000000 0.993925 0.971725X4 0.984409 0.972787 0.993925 1.000000 0.987141X5 0.992342 0.990626 0.971725 0.987141 1.000000采用逐步回归法对其进行修正。分别作Y与、、、、间的回归：DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/02/13Time:22:51Sample:20002011Includedobservations:12VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C-485.5712193.4853-2.5096030.0309X10.0829900.00464417.871070.0000R-squared0.969639 Meandependentvar2252.213AdjustedR-squared0.966603 S.D.dependentvar2240.254S.E.ofregression409.4004 Akaikeinfocriterion15.01828Sumsquaredresid1676087. Schwarzcriterion15.09909Loglikelihood-88.10966 Hannan-Quinncriter.14.98835F-statistic319.3750 Durbin-Watsonstat1.590048Prob(F-statistic)0.000000t=（-2.509603）（17.87107）=0.969639F=319.3750D.W=1.590048DependentVariable:Y5.1-9,,services,andmakethecitymoreattractive,strengtheningpublictransportinvestment,establishedasthebackboneoftheurbanrailtransitmulti-level,multi-functionalpublictransportsystem,thusprotectingtheregionalpositionandachieve Method:LeastSquaresDate:12/03/13Time:07:40Sample:20002011Includedobservations:12VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C-583.9340266.8283-2.1884260.0535X20.1213090.00919413.194100.0000R-squared0.945677 Meandependentvar2252.213AdjustedR-squared0.940245 S.D.dependentvar2240.254S.E.ofregression547.6277 Akaikeinfocriterion15.60008Sumsquaredresid2998961. Schwarzcriterion15.68090Loglikelihood-91.60048 Hannan-Quinncriter.15.57016F-statistic174.0842 Durbin-Watsonstat1.478429Prob(F-statistic)0.000000t=（-2.188426）（13.19410）=0.945677F=174.0842D.W=1.478429DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/03/13Time:07:46Sample:20002011Includedobservations:12VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C-1707.039400.4509-4.2627930.0017X30.0669770.00600711.149210.0000R-squared0.925543 Meandependentvar2252.213AdjustedR-squared0.918097 S.D.dependentvar2240.254S.E.ofregression641.1323 Akaikeinfocriterion15.91536Sumsquaredresid4110507. Schwarzcriterion15.99618Loglikelihood-93.49216 Hannan-Quinncriter.15.88544F-statistic124.3049 Durbin-Watsonstat1.327877Prob(F-statistic)0.000001t=（-4.262793）（11.14921）5.1-9,,services,andmakethecitymoreattractive,strengtheningpublictransportinvestment,establishedasthebackboneoftheurbanrailtransitmulti-level,multi-functionalpublictransportsystem,thusprotectingtheregionalpositionandachieve =0.925543F=124.3049D.W=1.327877DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/02/13Time:22:57Sample:20002011Includedobservations:12VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C-4261.308445.4814-9.5656230.0000X41.9093090.12428015.363010.0000R-squared0.959353 Meandependentvar2252.213AdjustedR-squared0.955289 S.D.dependentvar2240.254S.E.ofregression473.7034 Akaikeinfocriterion15.31005Sumsquaredresid2243949. Schwarzcriterion15.39087Loglikelihood-89.86031 Hannan-Quinncriter.15.28013F-statistic236.0221 Durbin-Watsonstat1.439372Prob(F-statistic)0.000000t=（-9.565623）（15.36301）=0.959353F=236.0221D.W=1.439372DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/02/13Time:23:05Sample:20002011Includedobservations:12VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C-1836.304244.4894-7.5107730.0000X50.0239450.00127218.828180.0000R-squared0.972565 Meandependentvar2252.213AdjustedR-squared0.969822 S.D.dependentvar2240.254S.E.ofregression389.1748 Akaikeinfocriterion14.91695Sumsquaredresid1514570. Schwarzcriterion14.99776Loglikelihood-87.50168 Hannan-Quinncriter.14.88702F-statistic354.5002 Durbin-Watsonstat1.514864Prob(F-statistic)0.0000005.1-9,,services,andmakethecitymoreattractive,strengtheningpublictransportinvestment,establishedasthebackboneoftheurbanrailtransitmulti-level,multi-functionalpublictransportsystem,thusprotectingtheregionalpositionandachieve t=（-7.510773）（18.82818）=0.972565F=354.5002D.W=1.514864由于的t值最大，拟合度最好，因此把作为基本变量，将其余解释变量逐一代入的回归方程，重新回归。加入：DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/03/13Time:08:34Sample:20002011Includedobservations:12VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C-1305.896620.2595-2.1054030.0645X10.0335170.0359770.9316210.3758X50.0143630.0103651.3857310.1992R-squared0.974978 Meandependentvar2252.213AdjustedR-squared0.969418 S.D.dependentvar2240.254S.E.ofregression391.7707 Akaikeinfocriterion14.99155Sumsquaredresid1381359. Schwarzcriterion15.11278Loglikelihood-86.94929 Hannan-Quinncriter.14.94667F-statistic175.3429 Durbin-Watsonstat1.503401Prob(F-statistic)0.000000t=（-2.105403）（0.931621）（1.385731）=0.974978F=175.3429D.W=1.503401加入：DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/03/13Time:09:41Sample:20002011Includedobservations:12VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. 5.1-9,,services,andmakethecitymoreattractive,strengtheningpublictransportinvestment,establishedasthebackboneoftheurbanrailtransitmulti-level,multi-functionalpublictransportsystem,thusprotectingtheregionalpositionandachieve C-2122.314534.9997-3.9669440.0033X2-0.0299700.049419-0.6064550.5592X50.0297240.0096193.0901310.0129R-squared0.973642 Meandependentvar2252.213AdjustedR-squared0.967785 S.D.dependentvar2240.254S.E.ofregression402.0927 Akaikeinfocriterion15.04356Sumsquaredresid1455107. Schwarzcriterion15.16479Loglikelihood-87.26136 Hannan-Quinncriter.14.99868F-statistic166.2280 Durbin-Watsonstat1.468871Prob(F-statistic)0.000000t=（-3.966944）（-0.606455）（3.090131）=0.973642F=166.2280D.W=1.468871加入：DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/03/13Time:09:37Sample:20002011Includedobservations:12VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C-1842.145257.3236-7.1588630.0001X30.0046810.0162040.2888570.7792X50.0223590.0056513.9562900.0033R-squared0.972817 Meandependentvar2252.213AdjustedR-squared0.966777 S.D.dependentvar2240.254S.E.ofregression408.3378 Akaikeinfocriterion15.07438Sumsquaredresid1500658. Schwarzcriterion15.19561Loglikelihood-87.44631 Hannan-Quinncriter.15.02950F-statistic161.0458 Durbin-Watsonstat1.428073Prob(F-statistic)0.000000t=（-7.158863）（0.288857）（3.956290）=0.972817F=161.0458D.W=1.4280735.1-9,,services,andmakethecitymoreattractive,strengtheningpublictransportinvestment,establishedasthebackboneoftheurbanrailtransitmulti-level,multi-functionalpublictransportsystem,thusprotectingtheregionalpositionandachieve 加入：DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/03/13Time:09:50Sample:20002011Includedobservations:12VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C-2432.868896.5699-2.7135290.0239X40.4546850.6559940.6931240.5057X50.0183540.0081712.2463200.0513R-squared0.973955 Meandependentvar2252.213AdjustedR-squared0.968168 S.D.dependentvar2240.254S.E.ofregression399.6970 Akaikeinfocriterion15.03161Sumsquaredresid1437819. Schwarzcriterion15.15284Loglikelihood-87.18965 Hannan-Quinncriter.14.98673F-statistic168.2808 Durbin-Watsonstat1.386342Prob(F-statistic)0.000000t=（-2.713529）（0.693124）（2.246320）=0.973955F=168.2808D.W=1.386342加入以后虽然拟合优度有所提高，但参数的t检验变得不显著，所以在模型中剔除；加入以后拟合优度有所提高，但参数的t检验变得不显著，所以在模型中剔除；加入以后拟合优度有所提高，并没有影响系数的显著性，所以在模型中保留；加入以后拟合优度有所提高，但参数的t检验变得不显著，所以在模型中剔除因此，保留，把、作为基本变量，将其余解释变量逐一代入、的回归方程，再次回归。加入：DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquares5.1-9,,services,andmakethecitymoreattractive,strengtheningpublictransportinvestment,establishedasthebackboneoftheurbanrailtransitmulti-level,multi-functionalpublictransportsystem,thusprotectingtheregionalpositionandachieve Date:12/03/13Time:12:22Sample:20002011Includedobservations:12VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C-1323.190666.6302-1.9848940.0824X10.0326250.0385500.8462940.4220X30.0025420.0166590.1526180.8825X50.0137560.0116751.1782970.2725R-squared0.975051 Meandependentvar2252.213AdjustedR-squared0.965695 S.D.dependentvar2240.254S.E.ofregression414.9320 Akaikeinfocriterion15.15531Sumsquaredresid1377348. Schwarzcriterion15.31694Loglikelihood-86.93185 Hannan-Quinncriter.15.09546F-statistic104.2172 Durbin-Watsonstat1.492473Prob(F-statistic)0.000001t=（-1.984894）（0.846294）（0.152618）（1.178297）=0.975051F=104.2172D.W=1.492473加入：DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/03/13Time:12:32Sample:20002011Includedobservations:12VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C-2107.994586.6608-3.5932080.0071X2-0.0282470.055416-0.5097230.6240X30.0017070.0178930.0953940.9263X50.0288130.0139692.0626300.0731R-squared0.973672 Meandependentvar2252.213AdjustedR-squared0.963799 S.D.dependentvar2240.254S.E.ofregression426.2414 Akaikeinfocriterion15.20909Sumsquaredresid1453454. Schwarzcriterion15.37073Loglikelihood-87.25454 Hannan-Quinncriter.15.14925F-statistic98.62058 Durbin-Watsonstat1.432210Prob(F-statistic)0.0000015.1-9,,services,andmakethecitymoreattractive,strengtheningpublictransportinvestment,establishedasthebackboneoftheurbanrailtransitmulti-level,multi-functionalpublictransportsystem,thusprotectingtheregionalpositionandachieve t=（-3.593208）（-0.509723）（0.095394）（2.062630）=0.973672F=98.62058D.W=1.432210加入：DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/03/13Time:12:37Sample:20002011Includedobservations:12VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C-4134.8882187.387-1.8903320.0954X3-0.0349980.040899-0.8557100.4170X41.7852011.6914901.0554020.3221X50.0138560.0098211.4108360.1960R-squared0.976139 Meandependentvar2252.213AdjustedR-squared0.967192 S.D.dependentvar2240.254S.E.ofregression405.7788 Akaikeinfocriterion15.11069Sumsquaredresid1317251. Schwarzcriterion15.27233Loglikelihood-86.66417 Hannan-Quinncriter.15.05085F-statistic109.0936 Durbin-Watsonstat1.688367Prob(F-statistic)0.000001t=（-1.890332）（-0.855710）（1.055402）（1.410836）=0.976139F=109.0936D.W=1.688367加入以后拟合优度有所提高，但、参数的t检验变得不显著，所以在模型中剔除；加入以后拟合优度有所提高，但、参数的t检验变得不显著，所以在模型中剔除；加入以后拟合优度有所提高，但、参数的t检验变得不显著，所以在模型中剔除2、异方差性检验（怀特检验）.HeteroskedasticityTest:White5.1-9,,services,andmakethecitymoreattractive,strengtheningpublictransportinvestment,establishedasthebackboneoftheurbanrailtransitmulti-level,multi-functionalpublictransportsystem,thusprotectingtheregionalpositionandachieve F-statistic3.419183 Prob.F(5,6)0.0832Obs*R-squared8.882566 Prob.Chi-Square(5)0.1138ScaledexplainedSS3.021039 Prob.Chi-Square(5)0.6967TestEquation:DependentVariable:RESID^2Method:LeastSquaresDate:12/07/13Time:16:09Sample:20002011Includedobservations:12VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C296211.5170752.91.7347380.1335X327.8260420.868901.3333740.2308X3^2-0.0011030.000538-2.0511860.0861X3*X50.0006790.0003272.0781880.0829X5-12.247127.640871-1.6028440.1601X5^2-9.39E-055.33E-05-1.7615790.1286R-squared0.740214 Meandependentvar125054.8AdjustedR-squared0.523725 S.D.dependentvar143634.0S.E.ofregression99125.66 Akaikeinfocriterion26.15302Sumsquaredresid5.90E+10 Schwarzcriterion26.39547Loglikelihood-150.9181 Hannan-Quinncriter.26.06325F-statistic3.419183 Durbin-Watsonstat2.923838Prob(F-statistic)0.083247渐进地服从自由度为5的分布。给定显著性水平=0.05，=8.88=11.071，则不存在异方差。3、自相关性检验（拉格朗日乘数检验）Breusch-GodfreySerialCorrelationLMTest:F-statistic0.456014 Prob.F(1,8)0.5185Obs*R-squared0.647133 Prob.Chi-Square(1)0.4211TestEquation:DependentVariable:RESIDMethod:LeastSquaresDate:12/07/13Time:17:05Sample:200020115.1-9,,services,andmakethecitymoreattractive,strengtheningpublictransportinvestment,establishedasthebackboneoftheurbanrailtransitmulti-level,multi-functionalpublictransportsystem,thusprotectingtheregionalpositionandachieve Includedobservations:12Presamplemissingvaluelaggedresidualssettozero.VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C62.78789281.28340.2232190.8290X30.0113560.0237130.4789160.6448X5-0.0044090.008754-0.5036980.6280RESID(-1)0.4057680.6008820.6752880.5185R-squared0.053928 Meandependentvar1.33E-12AdjustedR-squared-0.300849 S.D.dependentvar369.3554S.E.ofregression421.2675 Akaikeinfocriterion15.18561Sumsquaredresid1419731. Schwarzcriterion15.34725Loglikelihood-87.11369 Hannan-Quinncriter.15.12577F-statistic0.152005 Durbin-Watsonstat1.603408Prob(F-statistic)0.925490LM（1）==0.647，=3.841，，故不存在自相关性p=1开始到p=10，始终有，故不存在自相关性。五、结论与建议影响房地产行业利润的主要因素为商品房销售面积与城乡居民人民币储蓄存款年度余额。5.1-9,,services,andmakethecitymoreattractive,strengtheningpublictransportinvestment,establishedasthebackboneoftheurbanrailtransitmulti-level,multi-functionalpublictransportsystem,thusprotectingtheregionalpositionandachieve
