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1、清华大学魏杰教授谈宏观经济形势（ProfessorWeiJieofTsinghuaUniversitytalksaboutmacroeconomicsituation）Famouseconomist,Professorofeconomicsandmanagement,TsinghuaUniversity,doctoraltutorWeiJiemadeawonderfulspeechonthedevelopmentofChina'smacroeconomicsituation.Thefulltextfollows.T
2、histimelastyeartoparticipateinthewaveoftheforum,thetimeofoureconomicgrowthinthefirstquarterof9%,lastyearweare9.7%,thesecondquarteris9.5%,thethirdquarteris9.2%,thefourthquarteriswhenIcometoparticipateintheforum,thedatahascomeoutis8.9%to9orless.AtthattimeIwasint
3、hehall,continuedtodeclineinMay2012ourimportantpressureorincreasespeed,Irememberveryclearly,thenputforward,wemaywantto7times,anincreaseofabout7%,laterproved,myjudgmentisjustified.Weare8.1%inthefirstquarterofthisyear,thesecondquarterto7.6%,thethirdquarteris7.4%,
4、thefourthquarter,Iestimatedtobe7.5%,thewholeyearis7times,itseemswediscussed,Ihaveproposedsteadygrowthin2012isourentireworkcenterthisyear,despitetheeffortsofthegrowthratetothetargetofabout7.5%,butIwanttotellyouisthatnextyearweactuallyimportantworkisstilltheso-c
5、alledsteadygrowth.Asyoucansee,thecentralpoliticalworkconferencehasbeenfinished.Themeetingfornextyear'sjudgmentisstillsteadygrowthinaveryimportantposition,buttheoverallpolicyis"Wenzhongqiujin",thisyearalthoughthesteadygrowthrateto7.5%,keepinouroriginalgoal,butt
6、hespeedofgrowthChinesedownsideriskisnotfullyresolved.So,thenextyearisstillfacinggreatpressureisthegrowthrateofI'mafraidwealsoneedtotakecountermeasuresisveryimportant,stableinourrequirements,Iestimatethatnextyearisa7.5%,stilla7era.Ithinkthis7times,weshouldtakem
7、easurestoachievethisgoalonly,sorecentlythesecomradestodiscussnextyear'stime,putforwardsomecomrades,will9timesnextyear,Icannotthink,becausethespeechfromseveralmainleadersrecentlyournewteam,nextyearwillnotbelikesomepeoplethink,weinthepursuitof9times,Icannotbethe
8、stateestimation.Nextyearwewillstillbethemostimportantadvancesteadily,steadygrowthisstillonthemostimportantgoals,thisyear'smacrotargetisbasicallythesame.Butspecifically,weintheendho
