myth of the rational market

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1、THEMYTHOFTHERATIONALMARKETJUSTINFOXToAllisonCONTENTSINTRODUCTION:ITHADBEENWORKINGSOEXCEPTIONALLYWELLviiEARLYDAYS1.IRVINGFISHERLOSESHISBRIEFCASE,ANDTHENHISFORTUNE3Thefirstserioustrytoimposereasonandscienceuponthemarketcomesintheearlydecadesofthetwentiethcentury.Itdoesn’twor

2、koutsowell.2.ARANDOMWALKFROMFREDMACAULAYTOHOLBROOKWORKING26Statisticsandmathematicsbegintofindtheirwayintotheeconomicmainstreaminthe1930s,settingthestageforbigchangestocome.THERISEOFTHERATIONALMARKET3.HARRYMARKOWITZBRINGSSTATISTICALMANTOTHESTOCKMARKET47Themodernquantitativ

3、eapproachtoinvestingisassembledoutofequalpartspokerstrategyandWorldWarIIgunneryexperience.4.ARANDOMWALKFROMPAULSAMUELSONTOPAULSAMUELSON60Thepropositionthatstockmovementsaremostlyunpredictablegoesfromintellectualcuriositytocenterpieceofanacademicmovement.{iv}/Contents5.MODI

4、GLIANIANDMILLERARRIVEATASIMPLIFYINGASSUMPTION75Finance,thebusinessschoolversionofeconomics,istransformedfromafieldofempiricalresearchandrulesofthumbtooneruledbytheory.6.GENEFAMAMAKESTHEBESTPROPOSITIONINECONOMICS89AttheUniversityofChicago’sBusinessSchoolinthe1960s,theargume

5、ntthatthemarketishardtooutsmartgrowsintoaconvictionthatitisperfect.THECONQUESTOFWALLSTREET7.JACKBOGLETAKESONTHEPERFORMANCECULT(ANDWINS)111Thelessonthatmaybeit’snotevenworthtryingtobeatthemarketmakesitscircuitouswayintotheinvestmentbusiness.8.FISCHERBLACKCHOOSESTOFOCUSONTHE

6、PROBABLE132Financescholarsfigureoutsomewaystomeasureandcontrolrisk.Moreimportant,theyfigureouthowtogetpaidfordoingso.9.MICHAELJENSENGETSCORPORATIONSTOOBEYTHEMARKET153TheefficientmarketmeetscorporateAmerica.Hostiletakeoversandlotsoftalkaboutshareholdervalueensue.THECHALLENG

7、E10.DICKTHALERGIVESECONOMICMANAPERSONALITY175Humannaturebeginstofinditswaybackintoeconomicsinthe1970s,andeconomistsbegintostudyhowmarketssometimesfail.11.BOBSHILLERPOINTSOUTTHEMOSTREMARKABLEERROR191Sometroublemakingyoungeconomistsdemonstratethatconvincingevidenceforfinanci

8、almarketrationalityissadlylacking.12.BEATINGTHEMARKETWITHWARRENBUFFETTANDEDTHORP211Justbe