[[特许金融分析师读书笔记].cfa.2008].cfa.-.stock.valuation.and.investment.decisions

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1、--Gitman2002.CH08.314-368.CTP7/19/0112:19PMPage314CHAPTER8echstockshavebeenattheforefrontofstockmarketnewsthepastfewyears.Oftenthissector,ratherthanblue-chipSTOCKindustrials,drivesthemarket—bothupanddown.TakeTQualcomm,forexample;acompanythatisaleadingdeveloperVA

2、LUATIONANDandsupplierofdigitalwirelesscommunicationsproductsandservices.ItpioneeredCodeDivisionMultipleAccess(CDMA)technology,aINVESTMENTstandardforthewirelesscommunicationsindustry.InvestorsinDECISIONSQualcommstockhaveexperiencedarollercoasterriderecently.Thefi

3、rm’s1999stockpricestartedat$6.48andsoaredsteadilyupwardtoendtheyearwhenithits$176.13—aftersplitting2-for-1inMayandLEARNINGGOALS4-for-1inDecember.Thisrepresentsanannualreturnofover2,600%,Afterstudyingthischapter,youtheyear’sbest.Thefollowingyearwasanothermatter,h

4、owever.Fearsshouldbeableto:ofslowinggrowthsentthestockpriceintofree-fall:Itplummetedfrom$163.25to$51.50,beforereboundingto$82.19atyearend,forLG1Explaintherolethataa53%return.Evenafterthedecline,thestockwasstilltradingatacompany’sfutureplaysinthestockprice/earni

5、ngsratioofabout85inearlyJanuary2001,asubstantialvaluationprocessanddevelopafore-castofastock’sexpectedcashflow.premiumovertheaverageP/Eof29fortheS&P500.DespiteQualcomm’sfluctuatingstockprice,investorslookedwithLG2Discusstheconceptsoffavoronthecompany’searningsgr

6、owth—94%from1997throughintrinsicvalueandrequiredratesof2000,whichfaroutstrippedtheS&P500’s14%.Thecompanyreturn,andnotehowtheyareused.consistentlymetorexceededquarterlyearningsestimates,andLG3Determinetheunderlyinganalystsprojectcontinuedearninggrowthto$1.26persh

7、arein2001,valueofastockusingthedividendanincreaseof48%over2000.valuationmodel,aswellasotherWhatdoallthesenumbersmeanintermsofthevalueofpresentvalue–andprice/earnings–Qualcomm’sstock?Thischapterexplainshowtodetermineastock’sbasedstockvaluationmodels.intrinsicvalu

8、ebyusingdividendvaluation,dividend-and-earnings,LG4Gainabasicappreciationprice/earnings,andothermodels.Wealsolookathowtovalueoftheproceduresusedtovaluetechnologystock