[probability.theory---the.logic.of.science].(e..t..jaynes)

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1、PROBABILITYTHEORYTHELOGICOFSCIENCEPROBABILITYTHEORYTHELOGICOFSCIENCEE.T.JayneseditedbyG.LarryBretthorstCambridge,NewYork,Melbourne,Madrid,CapeTown,Singapore,SãoPauloCambridgeUniversityPressTheEdinburghBuilding,Cambridge,Uni

2、tedKingdomPublishedintheUnitedStatesbyCambridgeUniversityPress,NewYorkwww.cambridge.orgInformationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9780521592710©E.T.Jaynes2003Thisbookisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexceptionandtotheprovisionofrelevantcollectivelicensingag

3、reements,noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewrittenpermissionofCambridgeUniversityPress.Firstpublishedinprintformat2003ISBN-13978-0-511-06589-7eBook(NetLibrary)ISBN-100-511-06589-2eBook(NetLibrary)ISBN-13978-0-521-59271-0hardbackISBN-100-521-5

4、9271-2hardbackCambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyofsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredtointhisbook,anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchwebsitesis,orwillremain,accurateorappropriate.Dedicatedtothemem

5、oryofSirHaroldJeffreys,whosawthetruthandpreservedit.ContentsEditorsforewordpagexviiPrefacexixPartIPrinciplesandelementaryapplications1Plausiblereasoning31.1Deductiveandplausiblereasoning31.2Analogieswithphysicaltheories61.3Thethinkingcomputer71.4Introdu

6、cingtherobot81.5Booleanalgebra91.6Adequatesetsofoperations121.7Thebasicdesiderata171.8Comments191.8.1Commonlanguagevs.formallogic211.8.2Nitpicking232Thequantitativerules242.1Theproductrule242.2Thesumrule302.3Qualitativeproperties352.4Numericalvalues372.

7、5Notationandfinite-setspolicy432.6Comments442.6.1Subjectivevs.objective442.6.2Godel¨stheorem452.6.3Venndiagrams472.6.4TheKolmogorovaxioms493Elementarysamplingtheory513.1Samplingwithoutreplacement523.2Logicvs.propensity603.3Reasoningfromlesspreciseinforma

8、tion643.4Expectations663.5Otherformsandextensions68viiviiiContents3.6Probabilityasamathematicaltool683.7Thebinomialdistribution693.8Samplingwithreplacement723.8.1Digression:asermononrealityvs.models733.9Correctionforcorrelations7