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1、ContentsIntroductionDefiningaPersonalPhilosophy,xv,ThreeGuidingPrinciples,xviOverviewoftheBook,xviiPartOne:EconomicFundamentals,xviiiPartTwo:TechnicalAnalysis,xixPartThree:OptionsTrading.xxPartFour:ATrader'sPsychology.xxiEpilogue,xxiPARTONEECONOMICFUNDAMENTALS11TheFund
2、amentalPrinciplesofaSoundInvestmentPhilosophy3PreservationofCapital.4ConsistentProfitability.5ThePursuitofSuperiorReturns,8Conclusion,102TheEconomicPrinciplesofMarketForecasting11EconomicsDefined.15ThePrimacyofProduction,17Savings,Investment,andTechnicalInnovation,17Ev
3、aluationandExchange.19TheSubjectiveNatureofValue.21TheNatureofEconomicValue,23Conclusion,243Money,Credit,andtheBusinessCycle25TheLessonofPierreandSasson,27Money:TheMediumofIndirectExchange,29TheConceptofOriginaryInterest,33CreditandtheGrossMarketRateofInterest,34TheNat
4、ureoftheBusinessCycle,36TheFutilityofGovernmentInterventionDuringRecessions,40Conclusion,414PoliticalInfluencesontheBusinessCycle43TheEffectsofTaxationontheLong-TermTrend,44CapitalGainsTaxes,48GovernmentSpendingandDeficitSpending,57Conclusion,585ApplyingMacrofundamenta
5、lAnalysistoEconomicForecasting:AnOutlookforthe1990s61TheBigPicture:TheMonetaryandFiscalPolicyMix,62DeficitSpending:IfNothingChanges,NothingChanges,64Conclusion,726TheHistoryandFutureoftheDollar73PoliticalTrends:PresentandFuture,80Conclusion,83PARTTWOTECHNICALANALYSIS85
6、7Volatility,Opportunity,andGrowthofGrossNationalProduct87TradingOpportunityandMarketVolatility,88GrossNationalProductVolatilityversusMarketVolatility,93Conclusion,988TheStockMarketasEconomicForcaster:ThelessonsofHistory99TwoForecastingMethods,100HighlightsoftheStudy,10
7、1DefiningtheTerms,102ANearCenturyofData,103ExceptionsandAnomalies,111Conclusion,1249TheTechnicalBasisofRisk-RewardAnalysis127AToolforMeasuringRiskandReward,128MarketLife-ExpectancyProfiles,131FocusingonRisk,136Conclusion,13810TheTechnicalPrinciplesofMarketAnalysisAppli
8、ed139DefiningYourTerms,140TheNatureofTrendsandChanges,142The1-2-3Rule,145The2BIndicator,146SecondaryTechnicalTools,15
