考研英语历年真题来源报刊阅读100篇

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1、考研英语历年真题来源报刊阅读100篇 Text 1Decliningpopulations：Incredibleshrinkingcountries　　Duringthesecondhalfofthe20thcentury,theglobalpopulationexplosionwasthebigdemographicbogey.RobertMcNamara,presidentoftheWorldBankinthe1970s,comparedthethreatofunmanageablepopulationpressureswiththedangerofnuclearwar

2、.Nowthatworryhasevaporated,andthiscenturyisspookingitselfwiththeoppositefear:theonsetofdemographicdecline.　　TheshrinkageofRussiaandeasternEuropeisfamiliar,thoughnotperhapsthescaleofit:Russia'spopulationisexpectedtofallby22%between2005and2050,Ukraine'sbyastaggering43%.Nowthephenomenoniscree

3、pingintotherichworld:Japanhasstartedtoshrinkandothers,suchasItalyandGermany,willsoonfollow.EvenChina'spopulationwillbedecliningbytheearly2030s,accordingtotheUN,whichprojectsthatby2050populationswillbelowerthantheyaretodayin50countries.　　Demographicdeclineworriespeoplebecauseitisbelievedtog

4、ohandinhandwitheconomicdecline.Attheextremesitmaywellbetheresultofeconomicfactors:pessimismmaydepressthebirthrateandpushupratesofsuicideandalcoholism.But,inthemain,demographicdeclineistheconsequenceofthelowfertilitythatgenerallygoeswithgrowingprosperity.InJapan,forinstance,birthratesfellbe

5、lowthereplacementrateof2.1childrenperwomaninthemid1970sandhavebeenparticularlylowinthepast15years.　　Butifdemographicdeclineisnotgenerallyaconsequenceofeconomicdecline,surelyitmustbeacause?Inacrudesense,yes.Aspopulationsshrink,GDPgrowthwillslow.Someeconomiesmayevenstarttoshrink,too.Theresu

6、ltwillbealossofeconomicinfluence.　　GovernmentshatetheideaofashrinkingpopulationbecausetheabsolutesizeofGDPmattersforgreatpowerstatus.Thebiggertheeconomy,thebiggerthemilitary,thegreaterthegeopoliticalclout:annualGDPestimateswerefirstintroducedinAmericainthe1940saspartofitswareffort.Compani

7、esworry,too:theydonotliketheideaoftheirdomesticmarketsshrinking.Peopleshouldnotmind,though.WhatmattersforeconomicwelfareisGDPperperson.　　ThecrucialquestionisthereforewhattheeffectofdemographicdeclineisonthegrowthofGDPperperson.Thebadnewsisthatthislookslikelyto