全球液化天然气分析：2021前中国将成为大液化天然气进口国

《全球液化天然气分析：2021前中国将成为大液化天然气进口国》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、若出现数据缺失，图表错位，可加微信：535600147，凭下载记录截图索取pdf版本ExecutiveSummaryThisreportisthefirstofaseriesofin-depthanalysesonglobalsupplyanddemandofLNG.OurinitialfocusisonChina,whichiscurrentlythesecond-largestconsumerofLNG(behindJapan)butarguablythemostimportantregiongloballywithimportsgrowingatacompo

2、undrateofmorethan35%overthelastthreeyears.WealsonotethatChinesegasimportsarehighlycyclicaland,inrecentyears,havebeenthekeydriverformovementsinLNGspotprices.Figure2showsthestrongcorrelationbetweenLNGspotpricesandmonthlyimportsintoChina.若出现数据缺失，图表错位，可加微信：535600147，凭下载记录截图索取pdf版本Figure1:

3、China’sLNGImports[Mtannualised]70605040302010Figure2:LNGImports[MtannualizedRHS]versusSingaporespotprices[US$/mmBtu]ChineseimportsLNGspotprices1270106050840630420210若出现数据缺失，图表错位，可加微信：535600147，凭下载记录截图索取pdf版本02010201220142016201800201620172018若出现数据缺失，图表错位，可加微信：535600147，凭下载记录截图索取pdf版

4、本Source:CEICSource:CEIC,Bloomberg若出现数据缺失，图表错位，可加微信：535600147，凭下载记录截图索取pdf版本WeexpectChinatoremainthekeyvariabledrivingglobalsupplyanddemandofLNG.Basedonourgrowthforecasts,weestimateChinawillovertakeJapantobecomethelargestconsumerofLNGfrom2021onwards.Furthermore,by2030,weestimateChines

5、eimportscouldbemorethantwiceJapanasweshowinFigure3.Figure3:LNGimports[Mt]ChinaJapanSouthKorea14012010080604020020092011201320152017201920212023202520272029Source:Bloomberg,J.P.Morgan**JapanandSouthKoreaforecastsbasedonBloomberginformation若出现数据缺失，图表错位，可加微信：535600147，凭下载记录截图索取pdf版本若出现数据

6、缺失，图表错位，可加微信：535600147，凭下载记录截图索取pdf版本Figure4:Chinaenergymixin2016Hydro,Nuclear,Wind19%Overall,wemakethefollowingconclusionsfromourresearch:·Chinesenaturalgasdemandgrowthhasbeendrivenbygovernmentpolicychangetoreducecarbonemissions:NaturalgasconsumptioninChinahasgrownbyaremarkable15%pe

7、rannumsince2003.Whilegrowthintheearlyperiodreflectedtheurbanisationandindustrialisationofthecountry,morerecentlygasisseenasatransitionfueltoreduceChina’srelianceoncoalasanenergysource.InthemostrecentFive-YearPlan,theChinesegovernmentsetatargetofincreasingthenaturalgascontributiontopri

8、marye