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1、----COVERPAGE----TheJointOperationalEnvironmentTheWorldThrough2020andBeyondUnitedStatesJointForcesCommandAugust2005Thispaperisa“livingdocument”collaborativelyupdatedandmodified.CommentsmaybeforwardedtotheDirectorofIntelligence(J2),UnitedStatesJointForcesCommand(USJFCOM

2、)JOELivingDraft_5August05TABLEOFCONTENTSINTRODUCTION1TheImportanceoftheJointOperatingEnvironment1Purpose2ResearchProcess2SECTION1JOINTOPERATINGENVIRONMENTOVERVIEW4ALookAhead—TheJOESummary4JOEConstants6KeyAssumptions6FutureGeostrategicLandscape7NationalPowerSynergy7Capa

3、bilitiesFramework7StrategicDefenseGuidance9TypesofChallenges9SECTION2UNDERSTANDINGTHECRITICALVARIABLES11CriticalVariableOverview11TheCritical1211PhysicalEnvironment12NatureandStabilityoftheState13SociologicalDemographics13RegionalandGlobalRelationships13Culture14Milita

4、ryCapabilities14Information14Technology15ExternalOrganizations15NationalWill15Time16Economics16ApplyingtheCriticalVariables16SECTION3SHAPINGTHEOPERATIONALENVIRONMENT18SocialandCulturalFactors18POPULATIONGROWTH19HEALTH20WEALTHDISTRIBUTION20URBANIZATION20AGEDISTRIBUTION2

5、1MIGRATION22CRIME22CULTURE23TRAININGANDEDUCATION25ETHNICITY26GeopoliticsandGovernance26THEPOWERFUL26THEWEAK27GLOBALIZATION29REGIONALISM29INFORMATION30ECONOMICS30TERRORISM31JOELivingDraft_5August05ALLIANCESANDCOALITIONS.31EconomicsandResources31COMPETITIONFORRESOURCES.3

6、1IMPACTOFTECHNOLOGY32IMPACTOFGLOBALIZATION33Science,technology,andengineering35BIOLOGICALSYSTEMS37MACHINESANDCOMPUTERS37INFORMATION,KNOWLEDGE,ANDCOMMUNICATIONS38ENERGY.39ENVIRONMENT40MilitaryTrendsandDevelopments40SPACETECHNOLOGIES41WEAPONSOFMASSDESTRUCTION/EFFECTS41IN

7、FORMATION.42HOMELANDSECURITY42OPERATIONALTEMPO.43CAMOUFLAGE,COVER,CONCEALMENT,DENIAL,ANDDECEPTION.43PRECISIONCAPABILITIES43SYSTEMSWARFARE.44STATEANDNON-STATEPARTNERSHIPS.44GLOBALACCESS.44IMPACTOFREGIONALISM.45IMPACTOFTECHNOLOGY.45IMPACTOFMILITARYTRENDS.46SECTION4IMPACT

8、ONOURNATIONALMILITARYSTRATEGY47Actors47ForeignPerceptions48CharacteristicsofMilitaryOperations49IMPLICATIONSOFTHEAMER