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ID:11784545
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页数:4页
时间:2018-07-14
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1、Thegreatunknown不确定性之重Canpolicymakersfillthegapsintheirknowledgeaboutthefinancialsystem?政策制定者能弥补对金融系统认知的不足吗?Economicsfocus经济聚焦Jan13th2011
2、fromPRINTEDITION• Tweet• INTHEdepthsoftheGreatDepression,PresidentsHooverandRoosevelthadtoseteconomicpolicyonthebasisofinformationthatde
3、cision-makerstodaywouldconsiderpathetic.Alongwithmanufacturingoutput,factoryemploymentanddepartment-storesales,theycountedthenumberoffreightwagonstransportedbyrail.AsaresultAmericasubsequentlydevelopednationalaccounts,whichtrytomeasuretheeconomybetter,usingconceptssuchasgrossdomesti
4、cproduct.在大萧条最为严重的时候,胡佛总统和罗斯福总统不得不靠着仅有的,当今政策制定者都觉得可怜的一点点信息来制定经济政策。除了计算工业产出,工厂就业率和百货商场销售额外,他们还计算铁路运输的货车数量。结果,美国后来开发出一系列的国民经济核算指标,用国内生产总值等概念来更准确地衡量经济状况。Theworldhassinceinventedavastarrayoffinancialandeconomicstatisticsandtheprocessingpowertocrunchthem.Yetpolicymakersaretodayinasimilar
5、positionwithregardtothefinancialsystem.New“macroprudential”bodieshavebeentaskedwithmaintainingfinancialstability,suchastheEuropeanSystemicRiskBoard(whichhasitsinauguralmeetingnextweek)andAmerica’sFinancialStabilityOversightCouncil.Butthecrisisexposedvastgapsinknowledge.Fromconduitsa
6、ndsubprime-relatedsecuritiestotheregulatory-capital-enhancementswapswrittenbyAIG,therewasabewilderinglistoffinancialexoticathatplayedasignificantroleinthemeltdown.自那以后世界各地出现了一系列繁繁总总的金融和经济统计指标,和研究这些指标的处理能力。然尔就金融系统而言,政策制定者今天的处境和过去差不多。新型的“宏观审慎”机构,像欧洲系统风险委员会(下周正式成立)和美国金融稳定监管委员会,正为维持金融系统
7、的稳定而努力。然而金融危机显示出对市场的认知还存在很大的缺陷。从管道投资和次级债相关证券到AIG承销的为改善法定准备金的掉期合约,各种新奇的,令人眼花缭乱的的金融产品无疑和这场大灾难息息相关。TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)andtheFinancialStabilityBoard(FSB),aglobalclubofregulators,havepickedsomepriorities.Threethingsareatthetopofthewish-list.First,system-widemeasuresofborrow
8、ingand“maturitymismatch”,wherebanksuseshort-termfundingtobuylong-termassets.Asinthepast,theseweretherootcausesofthefinancialcrisis.Theworld’stenbiggestbanksmorethandoubledthesizeoftheirbalancesheetsbetween2003and2007.Astheymadeloansfasterthantheygatheredcustomerdeposits,banksplugged
9、thegapbyshort-termb
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