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1、第29卷第7期生态学报Vol.29,No.72009年7月ACTAECOLOGICASINICAJul.,2009我国水资源生态足迹分析与预测＊谭秀娟,郑钦玉(西南大学农学与生物科技学院,三峡库区生态环境教育部重点实验室,重庆400715)摘要:生态足迹模型的提出为水资源可持续利用的定量评价提供了新思路。通过构建水资源生态足迹和水资源生态承载力的计算模型,对我国1949～2007年水资源的可持续利用状况作出了客观的评价,并运用ARIMA模型对我国水资源生态足迹变动趋势作出深入的研究。结果表明,1949～2007年,我国人均水资源生态承载力总体上呈下降态势,而人均水资源生态足迹
2、则逐年上升,从而造成人均水资源生态赤字逐渐增大,我国水资源处于一种不安全状态。运用ARIMA(2,1,3)模型的预测结果表明,2008～2012年,我国人均水资源生态足迹将继续呈上升态势,水危机形势将日益严峻。在此基础上,针对我国水资源的可持续利用问题提出了一组政策建议。关键词:水资源;水资源生态足迹;水资源生态承载力;ARIMA模型文章编号:1000-0933(2009)07-3559-10中图分类号:Q143文献标识码:ADynamicanalysisandforecastofwaterresourcesecologicalfootprintinChina＊TANXiu-
3、Juan,ZHENGQin-YuCollegeofAgronomyandBiotechnology,KeyLaboratoryofEco-environmentsinThreeGorgesReservoirRegion(MinistryofEducation),SouthwestUniversity,Chongqing400715,ChinaActaEcologicaSinica,2009,29(7):3559～3568.Abstract:Ecologicalfootprintmodeloffersanewmethodforevaluatingthesustainableut
4、ilizationofwaterresourcesquantitatively.Basedonthecalculatingmodelsofwaterresourcesecologicalfootprintandwaterresourcesecologicalcarryingcapacity,thispapermadeanevaluationonthesustainableutilizationofwaterresourcesinChinafrom1949to2007andthenusedBox-JenkinsAutoregressiveIntegratedMovingAver
5、age(ARIMA)modeltomakeaprofoundanalysisonthechangingtrendofwaterresourcesecologicalfootprint.Theresultshowedthatwaterresourcesecologicalcarryingcapacitypercapitawasdecreasing,whiletherewasanobviousincreaseinwaterresourcesecologicalfootprintpercapitainChinabetween1949and2007.Whenthewaterresou
6、rcesecologicalfootprintsurpassedecologicalcarryingcapacitygradually,waterresourcesecologicaldeficitemergedandincreasedannually,whichindicatedthattheuseofwaterresourcesinChinawasinanunsafestate.TheARIMAmodelwasappliedtopredictthewaterresourcesecologicalfootprintpercapitainChinafrom2008to2012
7、,theresultsshowedwaterresourcesecologicalfootprintpercapitawouldkeeponincreasing,andthusthestateofwatercrisiswouldbeincreasinglyserious.Finally,thispaperputsforwardsomepolicysuggestionstoimprovethesustainableutilizationofwaterresourcesaccordingly.KeyWord
