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1、April6,2010China:RealEstateDevelopersApril6,2010China:RealEstateDevelopersTriptakeaways:price/vol.upwardonsupply;policyamajorconcernApril6,2010China:RealEstateDevelopersKeytakeawaysfromHefei,Xiamen,andShenzhentripWe,togetherwitharound15investors,spentathree-day
2、propertytripinHefei,XiamenandShenzhen,visitinggovernmentofficials,propertyOVERVIEWOFHEFEI,XIAMENANDSHENZHENHefeiXiamenShenzhen200920092009April6,2010China:RealEstateDevelopersdevelopers,projectsandagencies.Ourkeytakeawaysareasfollows.(1)Volumeexpandedwithfurth
3、erpropertypriceincreaseinMarchfromFebruaryontheinventoryshortage.InventoryinHefei/Xiamen/Shenzhencanonlylastfor3.0/5.7/7.5monthsbasedonpast12monthsellingpace.YtdvolumeinHefeiisstrongerthanShenzhen.(2)Mostpeoplewevisitedbelievethesupplyshortagecouldbeeasedin2H10
4、,giventhepickupofGFAstartedin4Q09,andmostdeveloperswevisitedbelievetheirnewprojectslauncheswillskewtothe2H10.However,mostpeoplebelievethesupplypickupwillbemorelikelyonagradualbasisratherthansuddensurge.(3)Provincialcapitalattractsdemandinnearbycities.Manyinvest
5、orsweresurprisedbythesignificantincreaseinthesalesvolumeinHefei(atier-3city,theprovincialcapitalofAnhui),with2009GFAsoldat13mnsqm,1.7X/2.5XoverShenzhen/Xiamen(vs.1.0X/1.2Xin2004),drivenbytheurbanization.(4)Increasingpolicyrisks.Mostpeoplewevisitedindicatedtheir
6、concernsofpossiblefurtherpoliciestighteningfromcentralgovernmentorintier-1citiesifpropertypricesappreciateinthecomingmonths,whichisverylikely,inourview.ThegovernmentofficialsinHefeiandXiamenstillseemsupportiveoflocalpropertymarketsdueto(1)government’shighdepend
7、encyonpropertymarkettoachieveeconomicgoals,(2)still-moderatepropertypriceappreciation,and(3)ahighpercentageofrealdemand.Investmentview:morearange-boundopportunityintheneartermThetripaffirmedourviewthatthesectormightcontinuetorangetradeinthenearterm.Ourpreferenc
8、eistostaywiththenameswithbetterrisk/rewardtoourbase-andbear-casevaluation.Ourconcernoverpossiblehighvolatilityinthenear-termisgreatestfortheShenzhenmarket.OurtopBuysareR&Fan
