who will benefit from china’s stimulus-

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1、WhoWillBenefitfromChina’sStimulus?Asianexportersarelosinganotherimportantgrowthdriver,China,asaresultoftheslowdownininvestmentinChina.TalkofanotherpossibleroundoffiscalstimulusfromBeijingisbringinghope.Anumberofrecentofficialcommentshaveindicatedthatgov

2、ernmentpolicywillbefine-tunedtosupportgrowth.However,wearguethatthenewfiscalpackageislikelytobesmallerinscalethanthepreviousCNY4trnstimulusof2009,andmorealignedwithChina’s12thFiveYearPlan.TogaugetheimpactofpotentialnewstimulusonAsianeconomies,welookatth

3、eexperienceofChina’s2008-09fiscalstimuluspackage.ThepackagewasannouncedinNovember2008,andChina’sinvestmentandproductionactivitystartedtorespondinearly2009.Subsequently,Asia’sexportstoChinamainland(withtheexceptionofIndia’s)grewstrongly;thiswasespecially

4、trueforThailand,IndonesiaandTaiwan.Relativetotherelativesizesoftheir11economies,HongKong,TaiwanandThailandreceivedthebiggestliftfromChinamainland’sfiscalboost.OntheFXfront,isolatingtheimpactofChina’s2009stimulusfromotherinfluences–especiallyquantitative

5、easingbytheUSFederalReserve–isdifficult.However,theannouncementoftheCNY4trnpackageitselfdidnotstopthedropintheADXY(themeasureofAsiaex-JapancurrenciesagainsttheUSdollar).TheFXmarketsrespondedtothehardevidenceofChina’sfastereconomicgrowthratherthantheanno

6、uncementofthestimuluspackage.WeexpecttheIndonesianrupiah(IDR),Koreanwon(KRW)andSingaporedollar(SGD)tooutperformonanotherroundoffiscalstimulus.ThispartlyreflectsthedirectimpactofincreaseddemandfromChina,butalsothefactthatthesecurrencieswouldbenefitmorefr

7、omageneralimprovementinsentimentandriskappetite.IsaturnaroundinChina’sdemandonthecards?Asia’sexportstoChinahaveslowedalongwithChina’sgrowth112012hasnotstartedwellforAsianexporterssellingtoChina.Chart1showsy/ygrowthinAsianeconomies’exportstoChinain2011(v

8、erticalaxis)andinthefirstfourmonthsof2012(horizontalaxis).Thoseabovethebluediagonallinehaveseenslowergrowthin2012thanlastyear;theyincludeallkeyAsianeconomiesexceptVietnamandthePhilippines.Forsixeconomies–Thailand,Taiwan,Malaysia,