资源描述:
《香港住宅市场合理价格和泡沫的实证研究[外文翻译]》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目:DetectingrationalbubblesintheresidentialhousingmarketsofHongKong出处:EconomicModelling,2001,1(18):61-73作者:HingLinChanShuKamLeeKaiYinWoo原文:AbstractThispaperattemptstoconductanempiricalstudyfordetectingmisspecificationerrorsandrationalbubblesintheresidentialhousingmarketsofHongKong.We
2、focusonafundamentalmodelthatdefinesmarketfundamentalpriceasasumoftheexpectedpresentvalueofrentalincome,discountedataconstantrateofreturn.Testableimplicationsfordetectingmisspecificationerrorsand/orpricebubblesareexploredthroughtheflowandstockapproaches.Inaddition,thepaperattemptstoidentifytheamo
3、untofmisspecificationandbubblecomponentsinthepropertypricedataofHongKong.Keywords:Bubbles;Housingmarket;Modelling1.IntroductionThetotallandareaofHongKongisapproximately1075km2.However,80%oftheterritoryisconsideredtoohillyforpropertydevelopment.Therefore,onlyatinyportionofthetotalsupplycouldbeuse
4、dforresidentialpurpose.Theneedtoaccommodateatotalpopulationof6800000peopleonameager50km2ofresidentiallandhasmadeHongKongoneofthemostdenselypopulatedcitiesintheworld.Withoutdoubt,landisoneofthescarcestresourcesinHongKong.Howtousetheresourceefficientlyis,therefore,animportantquestion.Inamarketecon
5、omy,priceisoneofthemostimportantpiecesofinformationforformulatinggovernmentpolicies.However,ifthepricescontainbubbles,misguidedpoliciesmightbemadeas-9-aresult.ThisproblemisparticularlyimportantforHongKongbecausethegovernmenthas,overtheyears,intervenedextensivelyinthehousingsector,despiteitswell-
6、knownreputationasbeingoneofthemost‘laissezfaire’marketeconomiesintheworld.Theseinterventionmeasuresinclude,forexample,provisionofpublichousing,restrictiononsupplyofresidentiallandsandrentcontrolsinsomeyears.Asaresult,housingpricesareinfluencedtoasignificantdegreebythegovernmentpolicy.Itis,theref
7、ore,importanttoascertainwhetherbubbleshaveexistedintheresidentialhousingmarkets.Apartfromtheabove,thereareotherreasonsthatmotivateustostudythisproblem.Forexample,theHongKongpropertymarketsplayanimportantroleintheeconomy.Seve