香港住宅市场合理价格和泡沫的实证研究[外文翻译]

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1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目：DetectingrationalbubblesintheresidentialhousingmarketsofHongKong出处：EconomicModelling，2001，1(18)：61-73作者：HingLinChanShuKamLeeKaiYinWoo原文：AbstractThispaperattemptstoconductanempiricalstudyfordetectingmisspecificationerrorsandrationalbubblesintheresidentialhousingmarketsofHongKong.We

2、focusonafundamentalmodelthatdefinesmarketfundamentalpriceasasumoftheexpectedpresentvalueofrentalincome,discountedataconstantrateofreturn.Testableimplicationsfordetectingmisspecificationerrorsand/orpricebubblesareexploredthroughtheflowandstockapproaches.Inaddition,thepaperattemptstoidentifytheamo

3、untofmisspecificationandbubblecomponentsinthepropertypricedataofHongKong.Keywords:Bubbles;Housingmarket;Modelling1.IntroductionThetotallandareaofHongKongisapproximately1075km2.However,80%oftheterritoryisconsideredtoohillyforpropertydevelopment.Therefore,onlyatinyportionofthetotalsupplycouldbeuse

4、dforresidentialpurpose.Theneedtoaccommodateatotalpopulationof6800000peopleonameager50km2ofresidentiallandhasmadeHongKongoneofthemostdenselypopulatedcitiesintheworld.Withoutdoubt,landisoneofthescarcestresourcesinHongKong.Howtousetheresourceefficientlyis,therefore,animportantquestion.Inamarketecon

5、omy,priceisoneofthemostimportantpiecesofinformationforformulatinggovernmentpolicies.However,ifthepricescontainbubbles,misguidedpoliciesmightbemadeas-9-aresult.ThisproblemisparticularlyimportantforHongKongbecausethegovernmenthas,overtheyears,intervenedextensivelyinthehousingsector,despiteitswell-

6、knownreputationasbeingoneofthemost‘laissezfaire’marketeconomiesintheworld.Theseinterventionmeasuresinclude,forexample,provisionofpublichousing,restrictiononsupplyofresidentiallandsandrentcontrolsinsomeyears.Asaresult,housingpricesareinfluencedtoasignificantdegreebythegovernmentpolicy.Itis,theref

7、ore,importanttoascertainwhetherbubbleshaveexistedintheresidentialhousingmarkets.Apartfromtheabove,thereareotherreasonsthatmotivateustostudythisproblem.Forexample,theHongKongpropertymarketsplayanimportantroleintheeconomy.Seve