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1、BorderlessManagementShanghaiInternationalStudiesUniversityMBAProgramSanCarlosMudSlidesDataAnalysis&DecisionMakingPT3Group3SanCarlosMudSlidesBackgroundIntroduction•SanCarlosarefacingmudslidesThePresentationIncluding•SanCarlosMudSlides•thCroenatstdruecttaoreExtatienninsigvewlaolglging.BackgroundIntro
2、ductioni•mMmakeidnigatdeelycisionbythedefaultP•aRreafmoreetsetrationcanpreventitafterSanCarlosMudSlidesCase•ParameterCalculation•aWyeaaitralantderP.rayMudslidesnoth•aCpopnesniderimpactinacomplex•DecisionTree&Resultc•iTrchuemmsutadnscleidescandestroytheFoursolutions•roKaicdk.offatesting–Positive•Dec
3、ision-MakingExpansion•Q&A•PMruodceseldideastehsatvinegth-eNpeogsastiibvielitytoYouaretheMayorofSanCarlos•Q&AoverflowtheretainingwallRelevantParameterInstructionConstructProtectingWallCost40,000USDProbabilityofDestroyingRepairingRoadCostProtectingwallifmudslide1,000,000USD5%ProbabilityPositiveNegati
4、veTotalProbabilityPositiveNegativeSlide(S)0.90%0.10%1%Slide(S)90%15%NoSlide(NS)14.85%84.15%99%NoSlide(NS)10%85%Total15.75%84.25%100%+P(S
5、P)5.71%SituationPP(P)P(NS
6、P)94.29%Slide(S)P(S)1%P(S
7、N)0.12%NoSlide(NS)P(NS)99%P(NS
8、N)99.88%DecisionTreeDemonstration$90,000BreadThrough5%$1,040,000ESlide1%$40,500
9、NoBreadThrough95%$40,000BBuildwallNoSlide99%$40,000$7,7501%$1,000,000$10,000SlideA5%WaitCNoSlide99%$0$1,040,000$90,000BreakThroughMNotBreakTesting$42,857P(S
10、P)5.71%95%$40,000$42,857$40,000$0BuildHFP(NS
11、P)94.29%$40,000$7,750PositiveNoBuild$57,143$1,000,000P(S
12、P)5.71%$1,040,00015.75%IP(NS
13、P)94.29%$0D
14、BreakThrough5%$40,059NoBreak95%$40,000P(S
15、N)0.12%NegativeJ$90,000M84.25%$40,000P(NS
16、N)99.88%Build$40,000$10,000$1,187GP(S
17、N)0.12%Notbuild$0KP(NS
18、N)99.88%$1,187DecisionTreeConclusionDecisionTreeExpectlossProceedatesting$7,750YesNoDoNothingBuildWallandWaitDecision-MakingExpansionLossUSDTestingCost$2,
19、250CoPrnocseeidderTestingCostTestingWaitTestingCostUSDDecision-MakingExpansionHypothesisProbabilityofMudSlideFrom1%to4%AdjustKeyParameterProbabilityofBreakThroughFrom5%to80%WhatistheResult?AreyougoingtoWait
