汇丰银行-韩国消费者研究-korea consumer areality check ahead of 2q17 results-20170710-hsbc

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1、10July2017KoreaConsumerEQUITIESCONSUMERArealitycheckaheadof2Q17resultsKoreaWecontinuetopreferconveniencestoreplays(vs.otherKarenChoi*formats)ontheirrelativelystrongerearningsoutlookHeadofConsumerandRetailResearch,Asia-PacificTheHongKongandShanghaiBankingCorporation

2、Limited,SeoulSecuritiesBranchSeparately,E-Mart’smarketsharegain,ledbysuccessfulkaren.choi@kr.hsbc.com+82237068781privatebrands,continues*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisKeypicks:conveniencestoresGSRetail(TPKRW77k)andnotregistered/qualifiedpursu

3、anttoFINRAregulationsBGFRetail(TPKRW150k,fromKRW160k),bothratedBuyWecontinuetopreferconveniencestorenamestootheroff-lineretailformatssuchasdepartmentstores,hypermarketsandduty-freeoperators,fortheirstructuralgrowthopportunitiesin2017e(seeKoreaConvenienceStores:Whatslowd

4、own?,27October2016).Year-to-date,theretailsectorhasunderperformedtheKOSPIby5ppt(retailindexisup13%vs.marketup18%)andwethinkthesectordeservessomeattention,given1)ourexpectationofanearningsturnaroundin2017and2)lessdemandingvaluations.Timetofocusonthesector:Lastyear,conven

5、iencestorenames’sharepriceperformancewasweak(GSandBGFRetailsharesweredown12%and5%respectivelyin2016duetoconcernsonthelong-termsustainabilityofthegrowthoutlook,unexpectedacquisitionsandadelayinearningsturnaroundofthenon-CVSdivisionofGSRetail.)Withthisnowbehindus,wethinkt

6、hesectordeservessomeinvestorattention,asweexpectanearningsturnaroundin2017.OurpreferredideaisGSRetailontheturnaroundofitsnon-CVSdivisionandrelativelyundemanding✔VoteinAsiamoneyBrokersPoll2017valuation(refertopage3):our2017OPestimateisc6%aboveconsensus.BGFVotingstarts6th

7、JulyRetailshareshaveunderperformedGSRetailby16%sincetheannouncementoftheIfyouvalueourserviceandinsight,voteforHSBCspin-offintoaholdingcompanystructure,butweexpectsharestorecoverpostClickheretovoteearningsrelease.Separately,wethinkE-Mart’smarketsharegainfromcompetitorssh

8、ouldbehighlightedagain.Wemaintainourassumptionof1%same-store-salesgrowthinMiFIDII–Research2017e,afterfiveconse