巴克莱-美股-房地产行业-巴克莱房地产业分析、评估与趋势判断

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1、EquityResearchU.S.Homebuilding&BuildingTheBarclaysRealEstateA.G.E.N.T.Products(Analyzing,Gauging,&ExploringNeighborhoodTrends)MichaelDahl+12125261341michael.dahl@barclays.comBCI,USHomebuilding&BuildingProductsMatthewBouleyDecember6,2017+12125269029matthew.bouley@barclays.comBuye

2、rTrafficBCI,US1008066.861.663.364.360.66052.650.545.638.537.749.540200Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17Aug-17Sep-17Oct-17Nov-17PriceIndex10078.982.683.982.680.58070.973.567.562.461.760.96040200Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17Aug-17Sep-17Oct-17Nov-17Source:Barc

3、laysResearchBarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefa

4、ctorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE46.NovemberRealEstateA.G.E.N.T.SurveyTrafficTicksUponJobsandLowRates,HitsSeasonalExpectationsTrafficImprovesinNovember:OurBuyerTrafficIndexrosetoapproximately50inNovember,upfr

5、omareadingof38inOctober,suggestingtrafficreturnedtolevelsin-linewithagents’seasonalexpectations.Moreagentscitedeconomicreasonsbehindtheimprovedtraffic,withjobgrowthappearingtoBuyerTrafficHomePriceIncentiveHomeListingsTimetoSellsupportactivity.Inaddition,althoughhomepricescontinu

6、edtoriseoverall,forMonthIndexIndexIndexIndexIndexthesecondconsecutivemonthagentsinafewmarketsobservedgreaterJun-1752.680.546.355.556.9willingnessfromsellerstonegotiate,whichinturnwasafactorbehindbetterJul-1750.573.546.653.950.1traffic.Anothercommonthreadwasthecontinuedfavorabler

7、ateenvironment.Aug-1745.667.545.957.647.5Sep-1738.562.440.156.143.2Withrespecttothehurricane-affectedmarketsinFloridaandTexas,mostOct-1737.761.741.957.835.5agentsbelieveddisruptiontobenowpastwithevensomeincrementaldemandNov-1749.560.937.963.642.3seenaroundneedfornewhousing.Taxre

8、formcreptintothecommentarythisChange11.9(0.8)(4