全球房价负担能力调查2018

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1、14thAnnualDemographiaInternationalHousingAffordabilitySurvey:2018RatingMiddle-IncomeHousingAffordabilityAustraliaCanadaChina(HongKong)IrelandJapanNewZealandSingaporeUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesIntroductionbyFelipeCarozzi,PaulCheshireandChristianHilberLondonSchoolo

2、fEconomicsDatafor3rdQuarter201714thAnnualDemographiaInternationalHousingAffordabilitySurveyINTRODUCTIONMeasuringAffordability:AlternativePerspectivesFelipeCarozzi,PaulCheshire&ChristianHilberLondonSchoolofEconomicsFelipeCarozziPaulCheshireChristianHilberBritain’sOffi

3、ceofNationalStatisticsreportedthathouseswerethemostvaluableassetintheUKat£5.5trillion,accountingfor62%oftheUK’stotalnetworthattheendof2015:upfrom48.7%20yearspreviously.ThiscomparedtonetassetvaluesofEquityandInvestmentfundsofa‘mere’£115billion.AccordingtotheHalifaxthe

4、valueoftheUKhousingstockhadrisenanother£500billionto£6tnbyNovember2017,upfromjustover£4tnin2007.NowondertheBritish–acountrylargelyofhomeowners–areobsessedwiththeassetvalueofhousingwhileatthesametimecomplainingabouttherealcrisisofhousingaffordability.Thisisofcoursethe

5、firstparadoxofhousing‘affordability’:housingisbothanassetandagoodprovidingaflowofhousingservices–aplacetolive.Theinterestsofhouseownersdonotalignwiththoseofwouldbehouseowners.Risinghousepricesrelativetoincomespittheoldagainsttheyoungandtherichagainstthepoor.Beforewec

6、anhaveusefuldebatesorevengiveabalancedassessmentoftheissuesweneedgoodmeasures.HereDemographiahasdonewondersoverthepastdecadetofocuspublicdebateonthethinequityofrisinghousepricesrelativetoincomes.AsOliverHartwichinhisIntroductiontothe13editionlastyearsaid“Demographia’

7、s‘medianmultiple’approach…firmlyestablishedabenchmarkforhousingaffordabilitybylinkingmedianhousepricestomedianhouseholdincomes.It…isnotaperfectmeasurebecauseitdoesnotaccountforhousesizesorbuildquality.Butitistheonlyindexthatallowsaquickcomparisonofdifferenthousingmar

8、kets,anditisthebestapproximationofhousingaffordabilitymeasureswehavetodate.”14thAnnualDemographiaInternationalHousingAffordabilityS