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ID:7305579
大小:468.12 KB
页数:22页
时间:2018-02-11
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1、P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc10JWBT347/MckinseyJune9,201014:38PrinterName:Hamilton10EstimatingContinuingValueAsdescribedinChapter6,continuingvalue(CV)providesausefulmethodforsimplifyingcompanyvaluations.Toestimateacompanysvalue,separateacompanysexpectedcashflowintotwoperiods,anddefinethecompanysvalueasfollows
2、:PresentValueofCashFlowPresentValueofCashFlowValue=+duringExplicitForecastPeriodafterExplicitForecastPeriodThesecondtermisthecontinuingvalue:thevalueofthecompanysexpectedcashflowbeyondtheexplicitforecastperiod.Makingsimplifyingassumptionsaboutthecompanysperformanceduringthisperiod(e.g.,as-suminga
3、constantrateofgrowthandreturnoncapital)allowsyoutoestimatecontinuingvaluebyusingformulasinsteadofexplicitlyforecastinganddis-countingcashflowsoveranextendedperiod.Athoughtfulestimateofcontinuingvalueisessentialtoanyvaluation,becausecontinuingvalueoftenaccountsforalargepercentageofacompanystotalva
4、lue.Exhibit10.1showscontinuingvalueasapercentageoftotalvalueforcompaniesinfourindustries,givenaneight-yearexplicitforecast.Intheseexamples,continuingvalueaccountsfor56percentto125percentoftotalvalue.Theselargepercentagesdonotnecessarilymeanthatmostofacom-panysvaluewillbecreatedinthecontinuing-va
5、lueperiod.Oftencontinuingvalueislargebecauseprofitsandotherinflowsintheearlyyearsareoffsetbyoutflowsforcapitalspendingandworking-capitalinvestmentinvestmentsthatshouldgeneratehighercashflowinlateryears.Wediscusstheinterpreta-tionofcontinuingvalueinmoredetaillaterinthischapter.Thischapterbeginswithth
6、erecommendedcontinuing-valueformulasfordiscountedcashflow(DCF)andeconomic-profitvaluation.Wethendiscuss213P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc10JWBT347/MckinseyJune9,201014:38PrinterName:Hamilton214ESTIMATINGCONTINUINGVALUEEXHIBIT10.1–ContinuingValueasaPercentageofTotalValue8-yearforecastperiod,percent125Forecastper
7、iodcashflowContinuingvalue100815644190–25TobaccoSportingSkincareHightechgoodsissuescommonlyraisedabouthowtointerpretcontinuingvalueandsuggestsomebestpracticesinestimatingcontinuing-valueparameterssuchasgrowthandreturnoninvest
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