资源描述：
《advanced valuation issues inflation》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。
1、P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc29JWBT347/MckinseyJune8,201020:46PrinterName:Hamilton29InflationSoundanalysisandforecastingofthefinancialperformanceofcompaniesinhigh-inflationenvironmentsischallenging.Inflationdistortsthefinancialstate-ments,addingtothedifficultyofmakingyear-
2、to-yearhistoricalcomparisons,ratioanalyses,andperformanceforecasts.AlthoughallthefamiliartoolsdescribedinPartTwostillapplyintimesofhighinflation,suchtimescausesomeparticularcomplicationsthatwediscussinthischapter:Historyshowsthatinflationleadstolowervaluec
3、reationincompanies,becauseiterodesreal-termsfreecashflow(FCF)andincreasesthecostofcapital.Historicalanalysisofacompany’sperformancewheninflationishighrequiresadditionalmetricsinrealterms.Financialprojectionsofacompany’sfutureperformanceshouldbemadeinbothn
4、ominalandrealtermswheneverpossible.Asweexplaininthischapter,wheninflationishigh,analysisandvaluationdependoninsightsfrombothnominal-andreal-termsapproaches.Nominalindicatorsaresometimesnotmeaningful(e.g.forcapitalturnover),andinothercases,realindicatorsare
5、problematic(e.g.,whendeterminingcorporateincometaxes).Butwhenproperlyapplied,valuationsinrealandnominaltermsshouldyieldanidenticalvalue.INFLATIONLEADSTOLOWERVALUECREATIONSincethe1980s,inflationhasgenerallybeenmildinthedevelopedeconomiesofEuropeandNorthAmer
6、icaatlevelsaround2to3percentperyear.Butthisdoesnotmeaninflationhasbecomeirrelevant.AsExhibit29.1shows,the605P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc29JWBT347/MckinseyJune8,201020:46PrinterName:Hamilton606INFLATIONEXHIBIT29.1–HistoricalInflationinDevelopedEconomiesAnnualinflationr
7、ate,percentJapanConsumerPriceIndexNationalMeasure25U.K.RetailPriceIndex2015EuroAreaConsumerPriceIndex10U.S.ConsumerPriceIndex501959196419691974197919841989199419992004–5Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,OfficeforNationalStatistics,Eurostat,StatisticsBureauof
8、theMinistryofInternalAffairsandCommunication(MIC),Japan.situationwasquitedifferentinthe1970s,wheninflationhoveredaround10percentforthesameeconomies.Someeconomistswarnofareturnofsuchinflationlevels,asgovernmentdeficitsh
