PREDICTING-FINANCIAL-DISTRESS-OF-COMPANIES预测公司财务困境.doc

《PREDICTING-FINANCIAL-DISTRESS-OF-COMPANIES预测公司财务困境.doc》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。

1、PREDICTINGFINANCIALDISTRESSOFCOMPANIES:预测公司财务困境：REVISITINGTHEZ-SCOREANDZETAMODELS再论Z-SCORE和ZETAMODELSEdwardI.Altman*PredictingFinancialDistressofCompanies:RevisitingtheZ-ScoreandZETAModelsBackground背景Thispaperdiscussestwoofthevenerablemodelsforassessingthedistressofindustrialcorporatio

2、ns.本文讨论两种评估实业公司困境的古老模型。Thesearetheso-calledZ-Scoremodel(1968)andZETA1977)creditriskmodel.他们就是所谓的Z-Score模型（1968）和ZETA信用风险模型。Bothmodelsarestillbeingusedbypractitionersthroughouttheworld.他们至今仍被广泛的使用着。ThelatterisaproprietarymodelforsubscriberstoZETAServices,Inc.(Hoboken,NJ).后者是ZETAServices

3、,Inc.(Hoboken,NJ)用户的专用模型。Thepurposeofthissummaryaretwo-fold.这篇总结的目的有两个方面。First,thoseuniquecharacteristicsofbusinessfailuresareexaminedinordertospecifyandquantifythevariableswhichareeffectiveindicatorsandpredictorsofcorporatedistress.首先，检查那些企业倒闭的特性用来指出和确定企业困境有效的指标和预测值的数量。Bydoingso,Ihope

4、tohighlighttheanalyticaswellasthepracticalvalueinherentintheuseoffinancialratios.如此，我希望强调财务比率运用中天生的分析和实践价值。Specifically,asetoffinancialandeconomicratioswillbeanalyzedinacorporatedistresspredictioncontextusingamultiplediscriminantstatisticalmethodology.具体地说，是使用多个判别统计方法将一系列财务和经济比率在一个企业困境

5、预期的环境中进行分析。Throughthisexercise,Iwillexplorenotonlythequantifiablecharacteristicsofpotentialbankruptsbutalsotheutilityofamuch-malignedtechniqueoffinancialanalysis:ratioanalysis.通过这个操作，我不仅将探讨潜在破产的可计量特性，也将探讨比率分析——这个财务分析中备受质疑的方法的实用价值。Althoughthemodelsthatwewilldiscussweredevelopedinthelate

6、1960’sandmid-1970’s,Iwillextendourtestsandfindingstoincludeapplicationtofirmsnottradedpublicly,tonon-manufacturingentities,andalsorefertoanewbond-ratingequivalentmodelforemergingmarketscorporatebonds.将被讨论的模型在20世纪60年代末期和70年代中期已经成熟，尽管如此，我会把测验和研究结果拓展至包含未上市企业的申请和非制造业团体，也会结合新型市场公司债券的债券评级等值模

7、型。ThelatterutilizesaversionoftheZ-ScoremodelcalledZ”.后者用的是Z-Score的一个变型，称作“Z”。Thispaperalsoupdatesthepredictivetestsondefaultsandbankruptciesthroughtheyear1999.本文亦更新预测性测试数值和1999年的破产。AsIfirstwrotein1968,anditseemseventruerinthelate1990’s,academiciansseemtobemovingtowardtheeliminationof