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1、MONETARYNEUTRALITYPrizeLecture,December7,1995byROBERTE.LUCAS,JR*UniversityofChicago,USAINTRODUCTIONTheworkforwhichIhavereceivedthisprizewaspartofanefforttounder-standhowchangesintheconductofmonetarypolicycaninfluenceinfla-tion,employment,andproduction.Somuchthou
2、ghthasbeendevotedtothisquestionandsomuchevidenceisavailablethatonemightreasonablyassumethatithadbeensolvedlongago.Butthisisnotthecase:Ithadnotbeensolvedinthe1970swhenIbeganmyworkonit,andevennowthisquestionhasnotbeengivenanythinglikeafullysatisfactoryanswer.Inthi
3、slectureIwilltrytoclarifywhatitisabouttheproblemofbringingavailableevidencetobearontheassessmentofdifferentmonetarypoliciesthatmakesitsodifficult,andtoreviewtheprogressthathasbeenmadetowardsolvingitinthelasttwodecades.Fromthebeginningsofmodernmonetarytheory,inDa
4、vidHume’smar-velousessaysof1752,OfMoneyandOfInterest,conclusionsabouttheeffectofchangesinmoneyhaveseemedtodependcriticallyonthewayinwhichthechangeiseffected.Informulatingthedoctrinethatwenowcallthequantitytheoryofmoney,Humestressedtheunits-changeaspectofchangesi
5、nthemoneystock,andtheirrelevanceofsuchchangestothebehaviorofrationalpeople.“Itisindeedevident,”hewroteinOfMoney,“thatmoneyisnothingbuttherepresentationoflabourandcommodities,andservesonlyasamethodofratingorestimatingthem.Wherecoinisingreaterplenty,asagreaterquan
6、tityofitisrequiredtorepresentthesamequantityofgoods,itcanhavenoeffect,eithergoodorbad...anymorethanitwouldmakeanalte-rationonamerchant’sbooks,if,insteadoftheArabianmethodofnotation,whichrequiresfewcharacters,heshouldmakeuseoftheRoman,whichrequiresagreatmany.”(p.
7、28)1Hereturnstothisideathatchangesinthequantityofmoneyarejustunits*IthankNancyStokeyforinvaluablediscussionandcriticism.IamalsoverygratefulforcommentsfromWilliamBrock,JohnCochrane,MiltonFriedman,AnilKashyap,RandallKroszner,CaseyMulligan,SherwinRosen,AllenSanders
8、on,ThomasSargent,JohnTaylor,NeilWallace,WarrenWeber,andJörgenWeibull.1AllpagereferencestoHumesessaysaretoHume(1970).Ihaveleftthespellingasintheoriginalandmodernizedth
